2023 September 5

Daily news wrap-up

Armenia vs. Russia: diplomatic spat deepens || Armenia to send humanitarian aid to Ukraine || Lavrov's plan || Inflation report || Armenia building power line to Georgia
by ar_david_hh

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Lavrov's Plan || An article from November, 2015

TATUL HAKOBYAN: Russian MFA Sergey Lavrov visited Azerbaijan last month. Azeri MFA did not deny the possibility of Azerbaijan joining Russia's EAEU trade bloc. Azerbaijan made it clear that its membership in the EAEU would have a price: the return of several territories adjacent to Nagorno-Karabakh.

Russian press revealed a [Lavrov] plan according to which the Armenian side would return the adjacent regions with the exception of Lachin and [Kelbajar], followed by the deployment of peacekeepers.

Russia has been the top mediator since the 1990s and wants to end this conflict as soon as possible by dictating its terms, in a way that would not weaken its position in the region. In 1994-1997 Russia offered multiple scenarios: Armenians return the adjacent regions, Russian peacekeepers with CIS mandate are deployed in Nagorno-Karabakh a-la Abkhazia, while Nagorno-Karabakh's status remains unclarified.

Now we're seeing the re-activation of Russia. It wants to appease Azerbaijan by promising the return of several adjacent regions in exchange for Azerbaijan's membership in the EAEU. Lately, the diplomatic relations between Russia and Azerbaijan have strengthened.

Armenia has always supported the return of the adjacent territories, but only under the condition of securing Nagorno-Karabakh's status outside of Azerbaijan. If [Lavrov's plan] insinuates the return of adjacent territories without securing Nagorno-Karabakh's status, then it's a dangerous plan.

If there is currently no document on the negotiation table, they must propose one to the sides. Unfortunately, Armenia was diplomatically passive in previous years. We should have promoted diplomacy even if we were convinced that Azerbaijan was not keen on being constructive.

It will be unacceptable if the new plan does not clearly define the terms of the referendum for status. The Madrid document was the red line, beyond which nothing would be acceptable for the Armenian side. At the same time, Azerbaijan rejected the Madrid document because it mentions the right to self-determination.

If the new plan [Lavrov plan] does not secure the right to self-determination, Armenia must not surrender a single piece of land. //

Flashback: After the war, [Pashinyan revealed](https://www.reddit.com/r/armenia/comments/nokstb/may302021_news_1_pashinyan_discusses_karabakh/) that following the 2016 April war, the new Russian proposal was worse than Madrid and no longer envisaged an interim status for Nagorno-Karabakh. Serj administration even offered to surrender the regions of Lachin and Kelbajar [the "+2" portion of the 7] in exchange for an interim status but Azerbaijan rejected that offer too, while Russia chose not to pursue Azerbaijan to accept it.

[source,](https://www.aniarc.am/2023/09/05/nk-talks-russia-lavrov-plan-2015/) [source,](https://www.reddit.com/r/armenia/comments/nokstb/may302021_news_1_pashinyan_discusses_karabakh/)

Russia responds to Pashinyan's interview

Pashinyan angered the Kremlin yesterday by calling Russia an unreliable partner. [Full details in Monday report.](https://www.reddit.com/r/armenia/comments/16ag0hi/nagornokarabakh_oppo_leader_samvel_babayan_says/)

Putin's spokesman: We disagree. Russia is an integral part of the South Caucasus and doesn't plan to leave the region.

Let's not forget that there are more ethnic Armenians living in Russia than in Armenia proper. Most of them are exemplary and patriotic citizens who make their worthy contribution to the development of Russia.

We deeply respect PM Pashinyan and appreciate the very constructive relations between him and President Putin. //

Reporter: Pashinyan spoke about a taste of reality, the mistake of having Russia as the exclusive defense partner, and how Russia can't defend Armenia even if it wants to.

Foreign Ministry of Russia: One must be responsible for own actions and not blame others endlessly on every occasion. That's the difference between a politician and someone who is just passing by with no regard for national interests.

[source,](https://arka.am/en/news/politics/russian_presidential_spokesman_moscow_does_not_agree_with_armenian_pm_s_statements/) [source,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U2qvUI4Vo3o)

Armenia will send humanitarian aid to Ukraine

Factor.am sources: Armenia plans to send humanitarian aid to war-torn Ukraine. This information was indirectly confirmed by Norik Gevorgyan, the leader of the Armenian community union in Kyiv.

Armenian ambassador to Ukraine spoke with community members about the aid. The cargo will arrive in pieces throughout September.

The aid will be distributed to ethnic Ukrainians, Armenians, and everyone else. No info on the volume and content of the aid at this time.

[source,](https://factor.am/684212.html)

Pashinyan's wife Anna Hakobyan will lead the humanitarian mission to Ukraine

Azatutyun: This will be the first time Armenia has sent aid to Ukraine since the start of the war. On Wednesday Pashinyan's wife will reportedly take part in a humanitarian initiative organized by First Ladies of various countries. Anna Hakobyan's name is not yet on the list of attendees but our sources say she will be there. //

Possibly related: Azerbaijani president's wife Mehriban Aliyeva was reportedly going to send "humanitarian aid" to Nagorno-Karabakh via the Agdam road on her birthday last month, but Armenians rejected this Russian-backed humiliation by Mehriban. Now the First Lady of Armenia is sending aid to Russia's enemy #1.

[source;](https://www.civilnet.am/news/749106/հայաստանն-օգնություն-է-ուղարկել-ուկրաինա-որը-կփոխանցի-աննա-հակոբյանը․-ազատություն/) [source: various analysts, including Arif Yunusov]

Pashinyan's criticism of Russia was widely circulated in Ukrainian and Russian press: analyst Armen Chibukhchyan

CHIBUKHCHYAN: The Italian journalist from La Repubblica was *suspiciously* too familiar with the conflict. It's as if a serious researcher gave him a list of questions that needed to be asked Pashinyan out loud. The journalist kept pressing the right buttons to get the answers.

The interview has resonated in the Ukrainian press and among Russian opposition outlets, especially the part where Pashinyan said it was a strategic mistake to rely overly on Russia for defense.

It is obvious at this point that Turkey is too important for Russia. The time has come for Armenia to leave the Russian circle.

Azerbaijani press claims Emmanuel Macron will visit Armenia soon. It might be fake news but we're seeing some panic in Azeri press.

The Italian journalist was dispatched to find out if Pashinyan had decided to change Armenia's foreign policy vector. It's obvious that Azerbaijan is planning another military attack. Now is the time for Armenia to make a move towards the West.

Russian MFA spokeswoman Maria Zakharova spat on our faces by blaming Armenia for the blockade of the Lachin corridor. What the Italian journalist wanted to hear is that Armenia needs international peacekeepers instead of Russian ones, and that Armenia accuses Russia and Azerbaijan of acting jointly. Pashinyan refrained from saying those things directly.

Nevertheless, Pashinyan stated that Armenia is attempting to diversify its defense partners. This is necessary for preserving our independence.

I have received information that Russia has found a suitable candidate within the ruling QP party to replace Pashinyan if things come down to it. //

[source,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=klkjO3JfRrw?t=836)

Russian opposition media TV Rain's coverage of the AM-RU diplomatic spat

The host spoke about Pashinyan's accusations against the Kremlin, the lack of support, the strategic mistake of placing all the eggs in one basket, the decision to send humanitarian aid to Ukraine, the decision to ratify the Rome Statute, and the accumulation of Azerbaijani forces on the NK-AZ border.

HOST: Our guest is analyst Arayik Kochinyan from Yerevan. That was some strong language from Pashinyan. What is all this about, and why now?

KOCHINYAN: Armenia is concerned about the military buildup on the AM-AZ border but no one in Armenia believes that Russia will provide support. Under these conditions, Armenia is taking steps to break its international isolation and the label of being a Russian ally.

Armenia's membership to CSTO serves as a barrier to deeper military cooperation with others. After the 2020 war, Armenia began large-scale army reforms to change the structure and acquire an unprecedented amount of weapons.

That was the context of Pashinyan's speech.

Today Armenia recalled its representative to CSTO but I don't understand why it's big news. It was a routine process. They have already appointed him as an ambassador to the Netherlands. Another diplomat will soon replace him in CSTO. No one was recalled "for consultations" which is normally what happens when there is a diplomatic problem.

As for the Rome Statute, the efforts to ratify it began well before the ICC issued a warrant for Putin's arrest. Armenia is pursuing its own interests. It's needed to launch trials against the military-political leaders of Azerbaijan for war crimes during the 2020 war.

HOST: So it sounds like everything is fine in AM-RU relations?

KOCHINYAN: Not at all. There are even deeper problems in AM-RU relations. The Armenian public is starting to view Russia as a direct threat. A recent survey shows that Russia is in top-3 external threats: Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Russia.

Share of Armenians who view Russia as an ally. 2017: >80%; 2023: <50%. This is a historic anti-record.

And the problems are only piling up. But for now, the change in AM-RU interstate relations is only in the rhetoric. Armenia has not yet left the CSTO, no one plans to arrest Putin in Yerevan, etc.

HOST: I doubt Putin will want to return to Armenia.

KOCHINYAN: He probably won't. The last time he was here, no one bowed to him. It irritated him. But there is no state-level policy change in AM-RU relations yet. It seems that the hysteria is being stirred up from within Russia to justify its current inaction and future inaction if Azerbaijan attacks Armenia in the near future. If the attack happens, as in the past, Armenia will send a letter requesting support but Russia will reject it again, so the Russian propagandists will need a justification for Kremlin's inaction. We're seeing waves of info-drops in the Russian media, calling Armenia a "traitor". This is being done to shift the blame away from Russia for its refusal to help Armenia against Azerbaijan. Hundreds of thousands of Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh trusted Russia, and now they are hungry. Их кинули.

[source,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MKTZMdes8GU?t=5079)

inflation report: August YoY

Consumer prices -0.2%

Food & bevarages: -4%

Vegetable oil: -37%

Petrol: -5%

Diesel: -23%

Fruits: -3%

Veggies: -4%

Rice: -6%

Flour: -18%

Pasta: -12%

Buckwheat: -28%

Lentil: -23%

Peas: -16%

Pork: -14%

Poultry: -1%

Beef: +3%

Fish: -4%

Milk: -3%

Cheese: +0%

Eggs: +14%

Margarine: -16%

Butter: -4%

Alcohol & tobacco: +9%

Clothing: +5%

Utilities: +1%

Household appliances: +4%

Healthcare: +2%

Transport: +1%

Communications: -0.5%

Education: +5%

Restaurants: +5%

[source,](https://arka.am/en/news/economy/armenia_s_consumer_prices_register_0_2_annualized_deflation_in_august_2023/) [source,](https://arka.am/en/news/economy/in_august_2023_food_products_in_armenia_fell_in_price_by_4_yoy_nsc/) [source,](https://arka.am/en/news/economy/petrol_in_armenia_fell_in_price_by_5_2_in_august_and_diesel_fuel_by_23_2_year_on_year/)

government wants to "legalize" remote work in Armenia

The goal is to regulate remote work at the legislative level.

It's considered remote work if the worker and the employer agree to it, if the work can be done remotely, if the parties reach an agreement around the purchase of equipment necessary for work, if the worker does the job properly and is always reachable by the employer.

The government expects this to boost productivity and the economy because it will allow the involvement of skilled remote workers in industries that lack qualified workforce.

>It will also be more environmentally friendly.

Taxi drivers controlling cars with VR headsets from home? 🤔

✅ Can be smelly

✅ Can play loud music

✅ No need for a seatbelt

✅ All that without bothering passengers

[source,](https://factor.am/684094.html) [source,](https://arka.am/en/news/business/armenia_to_amend_labor_code_to_allow_all_to_work_remotely/)

Census 2022 population statistics: preliminary results

2001 / 2011 / 2022

Total registered: 3.2m / 3.0m / 2.9m

Total present: 3.0m / 2.9m / 2.7m

City population: -2.1%

Village population: -4.2%

Grew: Yerevan, Kotayk

[source,](https://armstat.am/file/article/sv_07_23a_510.pdf) [source,](https://hetq.am/hy/article/159750)

Armenia is building a new power line to Georgia

Hundreds of kilometers of power line will be laid to connect to the Marneuli substation in Georgia.

The tender for the construction of the Caucasus Power Transmission Network will be finalized this year. Europan and Indian companies are competing for the job.

German bank KfW will finance the >$188 million project.

>The new transmission line will provide a transmission capacity of 350 MW

Of the 3 power lines currently connecting AM-GE, only one is operational. The new line will connect Armenia, Georgia, Russia, and Iran.

[source,](https://arka.am/en/news/technology/tender_for_construction_of_caucasus_power_transmission_network_in_armenia_to_be_finalized_by_the_end/)

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Link to original report and comments: https://www.reddit.com/r/armenia/comments/16b4771/armenia_vs_russia_diplomatic_spat_deepens_armenia/