2023 June 26

Daily news wrap-up

by ar_david_hh

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interview with Artsakh-based opposition party leader Gen. Samvel Babayan, ex-leader of the Security Council

Context: Babayan has accused Artsakh President Arayik Harutyunyan of allowing the crisis to deepen earlier last year by refusing to install x-ray machines at the peacekeepers' outpost on Lachin Road. He believes that this "preemptive" agreement would have been the "lesser of two evils", and that it would have been better for peacekeepers to have the scanners, even though there was no legal requirement to allow either party (RUS or AZE) to install scanners. Today, under the violation of the UN World Court, Azerbaijan illegally blocks the corridor for humans, gas, electricity, food and fuel movement.

ART = Artsakh (aka Nagorno-Karabakh), AZE = Azerbaijan, etc.

REPORTER: Which parties are against holding direct ART-AZE negotiations, and why? Why does the USA want direct ART-AZE negotiations outside of the RUS platform? This is today's topic.

First question: Is the government of ART against negotiating with AZE, or is there an external force [e.g. RUS] that's preventing them from doing so?

BABAYAN: ART isn't against negotiating per se, it depends on how you formulate it. In reality, ART leaders are unwilling to assume responsibility. They demand mediators and international observers.

I've said this before: we must launch a dialogue with AZE primarily for developing an atmosphere of trust. Only then we can discuss other topics.

REPORTER: Is it actually important for ART and AZE to have a dialogue? Is it realistic?

BABAYAN: AZE has given ART no choice but to hold dialogue. ART government must snap out of it, assume responsibility and sit around a table to build mutual trust.

ART government has rejected many offers to hold dialogue. They always delay it, make demands about mediators, or demand to be treated as an "equal party". They are doing everything possible to avoid the process. But there is no more room for this: the road is closed, and we can't solve any problems, so we must make "unpopular" decisions.

REPORTER: Your party is active in ART and you've asked the government to appoint you as the State Minister to resolve the issues. Are you still willing to do so?

BABAYAN: If tens of thousands of residents gather in Freedom Square and give me the mandate, then I will carry the torch.

REPORTER: There are deep political divisions in ART today. Is this caused by the disagreements around holding a dialogue with AZE?

BABAYAN: Yes. The ART government and [fellow] opposition parties demand ART to be accepted as an "equal party" during the dialogue. Listen, you couldn't even achieve that while Armenians were the winning side, how are you going to achieve that today? They also demand international mediators. All of this is impossible to achieve at this stage. The international community views this as an internal issue of AZE. The political forces in ART still do not realize that we've returned to 1989, that we must sit down and negotiate with AZE from zero and attempt to build an atmosphere of trust.

The world will see whether AZE is willing to build trust and peacefully resolve the issues. Only after building trust we can discuss the issue of status, etc. So we aren't talking about "negotiations" at this stage. This is about building trust as the first step. RUS and USA aren't going to save you. You must agree to the dialogue.

REPORTER: Can there be "trust" when the president of AZE demands the abolishment of the state institutions and defense forces of ART, in exchange for "thinking" about issuing an "amnesty" to ART?

BABAYAN: If you read Aliyev's entire statement, he also spoke about not having "agents of foreign states" in ART, etc. When you put it all together, it shows a different picture.

We must formulate our understanding of "trust" and present it as a document to AZE. They can supplement it with amendments. We can discuss it and find out if the two sides are capable of moving forward.

We have to make our diplomatic move. If AZE rejects our efforts, then we can announce to the world and international mediators that AZE is unconstructive so we're ending any and all negotiations with AZE.

REPORTER: Azeri MoD Zakir Hasanov brags about being capable of invading all of ART with a single Army Corps.

BABAYAN: The document proposed by me addresses this issue. There should be a Green Zone, they should stand behind a certain line, etc. Let's not get into details yet. I know what I'm talking about and with whom. Critics argue that AZE would never accept that, they bring excuses not to negotiate. Look, we must do our part. Let's make sure we've taken every diplomatic step to avoid a physical conflict. Nobody cares what that Zakir Hasanov guy is saying, his statements shouldn't hold us back.

REPORTER: RUS claims that the USA is pressuring and has "threatened" ART to agree to negotiations. Many believe this was misinformation to discredit the USA. But wouldn't RUS actually benefit from an ART-AZE dialogue?

BABAYAN: No, RUS would not benefit from the ART-AZE dialogue. The opposition parties in ART exaggerated a piece of information and leaked it to RUS with the intent to remove Arayik Harutyunyan from power. Just like the ART president, these opposition parties are also unwilling to carry the torch and hold dialogue with AZE. It is clear who was behind the disinformation circulated by RUS's foreign ministry.

Pashinyan administration urged ART to hold a dialogue with AZE. They are against it, so they spread disinformation about "being threatened" by the West. The only problem we have today is ART officials' unwillingness to assume responsibility. They don't have a plan.

They must have a plan to hold talks with AZE. They must sit down and talk about mutual trust, discuss the location of negotiations, the topic of future negotiations, future status, etc. Who knows, maybe down the road you'll realize it's pointless, but you must at least have a plan and not be detached from reality and not make unrealistic demands like they make today, which leads to the suffering of ART people.

ART government has two options today:

1) Evacuate the civilians from ART.

2) Hold negotiations with AZE.

What's their plan?

REPORTER: Well, critics say AZE wants genocide of ethnic Armenians of ART, so any negotiations are pointless.

BABAYAN: It's not pointless. We must hold negotiations with AZE. The analysis of the statements made by the AZE foreign ministry indicates that a dialogue wouldn't be pointless.

REPORTER: AZE demands the "re-integration" of Armenians.

BABAYAN: AZE has its stance, ART has its own stance, and I have my own: establishment of mutual trust. Let's first build trust. Then we can discuss the demands and the rest. This "integrate as soon as possible" demand by AZE is just as unrealistic as ART's demand to join negotiations as an "equal party".

REPORTER: Is it also due to a "lack of courage" that the opposition parties in the Republic of Armenia are also against an ART-AZE dialogue?

BABAYAN: ARM's opposition gets its information from Stepanakert. They know very well that Stepanakert isn't ready to assume responsibility. They are simply repeating Stepanakert's position.

REPORTER: Foreign ministers of ARM and AZE are in Washington for negotiations. I suppose they will discuss the ART conflict as well. Do you believe there is some level of pressure on AZE?

BABAYAN: There is a certain level of pressure on AZE but it's neutralized with the help of TUR, for now. TUR is still reassuring its little brother AZE that they're together. ARM should do the same: declare that ARM and ART are "one nation two states". ART is an independent state, after all. A referendum in ART would be necessary to deviate from this course.

REPORTER: How long will Stepanakert's timidity last? What is necessary to change that?

BABAYAN: Here is a history refresher for you. ARF party was ruling ART as of June-July, 1992. The difficult situation made it impossible for them to govern anymore, so the GKO body was formed. We have a similar situation today. If tens of thousands of residents take to the streets, the ART President will be forced to either act or resign.

REPORTER: Do you have experience with negotiating with AZE in the 1990s?

BABAYAN: I used to send my aides to negotiate with AZE. I know Azeris very well. You shouldn't trust their word until you see it with your eyes.

REPORTER: If there is an ART-AZE dialogue, are we going to see a meeting between Arayik Harutyunyan and Ilham Aliyev?

BABAYAN: During the first phase of trust-building, the leaders will send their special envoys. Then they'll see if a face-to-face meeting is necessary.

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GyzxQ1CSgMU

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Link to original report and comments: https://www.reddit.com/r/armenia/comments/14jvrcl/direct_negotiations_between_nagornokarabakh_and/