2022 February 20

Daily news wrap-up

News Digest - Feb/20/2022: Interview with army expert Artsrun: Helicopters' role in 2020 war; Air defense holes; Jets releasing drones __ Video mockup of North-South's Syunik road __ Anti-earthquake tech __ Mirzoyan in Munich __ Artsakh Revival Day __ Comedy sketch drew ire __ Book Giving Day
by ar_david_hh

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This is your 10-minute Sunday digest in 2557 words.

don't miss the interview with General Samvel Babayan about geopolitics and Karabakh process

https://www.reddit.com/r/armenia/comments/svyf1d/interview_with_general_samvel_babayan_2016_and/

In Russian: https://www.reddit.com/r/ArmDailyReports_RUS_/comments/sw5yrh/интервью_с_генералом_самвелом_бабаяном_войны_2016/

interview with military expert Artsrun Hovhannisyan | ground-based air defense | aviation | helicopters becoming relevant again | what's next

Artsrun: You cannot rely solely on ground-based air defense [hereinafter "GBADS"]. There are myths about buying more TORs and covering the air successfully by "layering" it. To create the proposed layer, we've calculated that Armenia would need to spend $5 billion on 3 S-400, 10 BUK, 50 TOR, 50 Pantzir, passive radars, avtobaza, 20 sectoral radiolocation stations, etc., and that's without counting the purchases necessary for Artsakh.

Yet it would still be vulnerable especially considering Armenia's difficult terrain. GBADS with any density can be defeated with 6 rules. One of the problems is that your GBADS can only defend against x=1,500 intrusions simultaneously. That number is for the whole country combined.

Now let's focus on one particular geographic area between two hills where the enemy can come from. This area can only defend against 100. The enemy brings 200 against you, destroys your GBADS in that location, opens a window, and moves on to the neighboring location.

But what about ՌԷԲ (presumably electronic warfare system), you might say! ՌԷԲ goes both ways, from bottom to top, and top to bottom. Enemy's ՌԷԲ suppresses our TOR or Pantzir until it's destroyed, to open a window.

Reporter: Did the over-reliance on GBADS come from the Soviet era?

Artsrun: It's a mindset issue. There are extremes on both sides. There are also those who say GBADS are completely pointless. The truth lies somewhere in the middle. It should be in moderate quantities with a justified price tag.

You cannot win if you only defend yourself. If you're cash-strapped, it's better to buy universal weapons that can be used for both offense and defense. This is why developed countries give part of GBADS' duties to the airforce. The U.S. still has Patriots but not at very high density, and doesn't over-rely on them.

Reporter: U.S. and Israel rely heavily on the airforce.

Artsrun: Exactly. Analyze the budget and it becomes clear. Let's say the army has 100,000 soldiers. What share belongs to infantry, airforce, etc. and what's the budget for each branch? Israel is number 3 or 4 in the world with its 4th and 5th gen jet park, and number 2 with 5th gen jets.

Israel has perhaps the world's densest air coverage with GBADS because of the threat from Iranian ballistic missiles, but Israeli leadership openly admits that it's for last resort. Their primary strategy is a preemptive airforce strike against Iran if they believe missiles will be fired. This is the most efficient method in the world: destroy half of your enemy's missiles before they are even launched.

Armenia should have purchased the Su-30 jets sooner. 12-24 units with pilots having 200 hours of training would have allowed us to strike ground targets and drones hundreds of kilometers away, including larger drones while they're flying, enemy's GBADS, etc.

After 2012, Armenia began purchasing more or less decent weapons, but in small quantities, late, insufficiently mastered. The criticism about "why did you purchase Su-30 and not TOR" is childish.

Reporter: But is it cheaper to train a TOR operator than a jet pilot?

Artsrun: Yes, but your jet pilot can "substitute" your TOR operator, artillery guy, and ՌԷՊ guy.

Airforce experts generally develop a more forward-thinking mindset later on, as explained by British and German commanders after WW2. It's an investment. Armenia should have developed its aviation school after the 90s war. We had brilliant aviation experts in USSR but chose to focus on ground forces while dismissing the airforce as "luxury". Armenia's GBADS should be in small quantity, very flexible, defend troops/structures, better connect to drones/jets via digital systems.

The old mindset persisted in Russian military command even after the fall of the USSR, but lately, they've been developing airforce. We saw it in Syria. All you would hear on the news was "ВКС" (Russian Aerospace Forces) which became the symbol of victory, and occasionally [special forces].

Today, Russians deeply regret the mistake of abandoning the wonderful MiG-31 in the 90s. It was capable of covering the [ocean and North Pole front]. Today the Su-27/30 families cannot do that. They've reintroduced the MiG-31 concept but the production line isn't there anymore; producing from zero is difficult. The existing MiG-31 quantities are insufficient for the "kinzhal" platform [hypersonic cruise missile], whereas MiG-31 was excellent for it.

Reporter: How many jets does Armenia need?

Artsrun: [Video was edited but it appears he said Swedish Saab Gripen jets would be the best choice for Armenia.] But let's focus on Su-30. We need 1-2 squadrons of Su-30.

We must combine them with an equal number of modernized Su-25 or similar jets that can fire guided missiles. The Su-25 must be modernized enough to be compatible with at least half of the missile types used by Su-30.

We must combine those with previous generation WW2-style lightweight fighters. The world is restoring the concept of cheap fighters due to the rise of drones. Brazilian [Tucano](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embraer_EMB_314_Super_Tucano) and American Texan would be excellent choices.

How will they be used? While your large jet neutralizes its counterparts and heavy GBADS, the cheap lightweight jet's role becomes discovering the enemy's large drones and helicopters. It will have air-to-air missiles and guns to target enemy helicopters.

Why focus on enemy helicopters? They will become more prevalent thanks to missiles like SPIKE NLOS and pretty soon the American JAGM series. These two have already revolutionalized the field. While staying 10km deep within its territory, the enemy helicopter takes off but climbs only 500m-1000m to evade your radars. It fires 4 AI-guided rockets before landing. Those rockets penetrate 30km within your territory. This was used against Armenia in 2020. These Spike NLOS rockets were sometimes mistaken for drones. Your GBADS can't do anything against this. You need either those older jets [short-medium range] or your main jets from a long distance.

Armenia also needs small cheap helicopters (preferably 6-8 seats) to do the exact same thing. Russian Mi-38, Ansat, European and American models, etc. They are for transport but can be equipped to fire 4-8 such missiles. Multiple helicopters lift off simultaneously, fire, and land. This can be extremely useful during an operation. They don't need an airport. You can land them elsewhere.

And drones. We can have various types: big to work with jets, small to carry in a backpack. They can be used in large quantities, cheap, carry only 3kg load, use AI, strike in flocks to evade any defense.

How will the drone flock work? Your jet fires a winged missile that doesn't enter the enemy S-400's defense range. It climbs up with a kabrirovaniya [toss bombing?] technique. While climbing, it explodes and releases hundreds of small drones that continue to climb with inertia before descending. Their sole mission is to destroy the enemy's radiolocation stations. Nobody dies. The enemy sits in their chairs while their equipment is penetrated with 2kg explosives. Sure, they could repair it within hours, but by then it would be too late.

Reporter: Critics say Armenia's territory is too small to use aviation and maneuver it.

Artsrun: Sorry but that's laughable. Israel is almost twice smaller than Armenia and they don't just use the sea. You need several hundred meters for a spin. We have enough area. But that's not the critics' main argument. They say we don't have enough airports, which is true, but as we develop our aviation, we will also address that and use underground "angar" and countless solutions that the world has already come up with.

Reporter: In your opinion, will Armenia change its mind any time soon, or will we continue to over-rely on GBADS?

Artsrun: If we have smart army commanders who analyze the trends properly and not arrogantly dismiss subordinates, and if we hold conferences with the medium ranks to explain what the problems are, we can change the mindset. It's about management. Countries that have a culture of respecting and hearing subordinates perform better regardless of resources. //

https://youtu.be/vWoD9z9136Q

Tags: #AirForce #AirDefense #drone #helicopter #ArtsrunHovhannisyan

Armenians marked the [Artsakh Revival Day](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artsakh_Revival_Day) on February 20

In 1988, a democratic process led to the formation of the Karabakh Movement and a decision by Deputies to once again reunite Karabakh with Armenia after decades of Soviet and Azeri rule. Azerbaijan responded with retaliation and crimes against ethnic Armenian civilians. Ethnic cleansings were carried out across Azerbaijan.

Public officials from Armenia and Artsakh read speeches on Sunday to mark the anniversary of Revival Day.

Pashinyan: I am convinced that Armenians will soon heal the wounds and will take even more decisive steps towards the future for the realization of our dreams. Only in this way will we be able to keep alive the memory of all our heroes. The opening of an era of peaceful development for their generations, for our Motherland in general, will be the greatest tribute to their memory, which will guarantee the longevity of our state, the international recognition and implementation of the rights of Artsakh. Achieving these goals requires consistent, prudent, honest work, and we must be unwavering in this work. //

Foreign Ministry of Armenia: 34 years later, despite the ethnic cleansings and two wars, Armenia and Artsakh continue the struggle for the international recognition of the Homeland. //

https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1076015.html https://en.armradio.am/2022/02/20/february-20-is-artsakh-revival-day/ https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1076018.html

U.S. Congressman Josh Gottheimer (NJ-5):

This week, I met with Armenian refugees of the 2020 war. After hearing their stories and meeting their children, it's clear that we must do more to acknowledge the atrocities and to hold Azerbaijan accountable.

As a Jewish American, the targeting of ethnic minorities is deeply personal for me. The U.S. must do more to stand with Armenians, including expanding aid to Artsakh deportees and cutting aid to Azerbaijan. //

https://twitter.com/RepJoshG/status/1494059951085559814

video featuring conscripts who have just joined the army

Many of these boys will become artillerymen: https://youtu.be/AnvuTZARkQU

Special forces are preparing for field exercises: https://youtu.be/zU612ZfvrfE

... winter draft completed on January 31

Conscripts underwent multi-layer medical exams. The head of the draft process said there were fewer draft evaders this year.

https://youtu.be/nf9KCYR2RcA

VIDEO: mini-doc from 2020 about destroying Azeri tank convoys and artillery

https://youtu.be/ny1nYih59ts

Armenia marked the Book Giving Day on February 19

In 2008, the head of the Union of Writers launched what would later become a tradition to gift books to each other. It's celebrated every year on the birthday of legendary writer Hovhannes Tumanyan.

Events were held on Saturday attended by writers, officials, and amateur book lovers.

Georgian-Armenians [celebrated](https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/231522) Tumanyan's birthday in Tbilisi.

https://youtu.be/oqXkXr_rgv8 https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1075903.html https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1075977.html https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1075982.html https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1075990.html https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/231522

MFA Ararat Mirzoyan attended the Munich Security Conference

Met his German counterpart to discuss bilateral cooperation and topics relating to South Caucasus.

Met representatives of German businesses Veridos, Giesecke+Devrient, Secunet, etc.

Met his Iranian counterpart to discuss taking trade, defense, transport, tourism cooperation to a "new qualitative level". Spoke about finalizing an agreement about the formation of a Persian Gulf to Black Sea international transport route.

Met his Saudi Arabian counterpart to discuss diplomatic relations and the development of bilateral agendas between the states. They spoke about cooperation in healthcare, high-tech, and tourism.

Met his Canadian counterpart to discuss institutional reforms in Armenia and regional topics.

Attended a meeting about developing the South Caucasus, organized by the German GIZ development agency. He was joined by representatives of Georgia, Azerbaijan, the World Bank, OSCE, etc.

Met the representatives of Jigsaw Google, which has shown interest in the Armenian tech field, and invited them to visit Armenia.

https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1075941.html https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1075972.html https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1076003.html https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1076010.html https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1076012.html https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1076014.html https://factor.am/477485.html

amateur fishing season begins in Lake Sevan

Nature Ministry allows for limited quantities of fish to be caught "under supervision".

https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/231516

public broadcasting regulator responds to growing calls to take action against "low-quality content" in Women's Club comedy show

The show's titty-jokes, vulgar language, and stereotypes have driven some viewers on the edge. They called for the regulator to act against the show that's broadcasted weekly on Shant TV. "They are unfunny so every second sentence is about sex."

Education Ministry also complained over one of the sketches titled ["Վերջին դաս"](https://youtu.be/5Hxoz6zH-6M?t=36) (the last class), after receiving numerous complaints from angry teachers. It depicted teachers as corrupt and profit-driven, said the complaint. Teachers believe the sketches like that contribute to young students subconsciously developing wrong ideas about teachers.

The broadcast regulator said they aren't a "taste-police" and don't have examples of foul language that's prohibited under broadcasting rules. "Send us examples."

https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/231405

VIDEO: this is what North-South's the new Kajaran-Sisian road will look like

Dozens of bridges and tunnels, dozens of kilometers of new roads, twice the travel speed, up to 2 hours in savings. 6 years to build.

The pre-qualification tender was launched last week. The construction firm, which will likely be a foreign one, will be selected this year. The construction will likely begin next year.

Armenia's south has a difficult terrain for logistics. No railways, very curvy roads, winter problems. The solution is tunnels and bridges.

Most of the funds will come from Europe.

Infrastructure Minister Gnel Thanosyan said they'll try not to repeat the mistakes that delayed the construction of North-South by many years under the previous administration.

https://youtu.be/AVDFtOVM8gQ

COVID stats

3964 tested. 700 infected. 1826 healed. 14 deaths. 14946 active.

https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1076011.html

Armenian boxers won 2 gold and 2 bronze medals in an international competition

Anatoli Kolchina tournament was held in Belarus last week. The Armenian team finished second with the medal count.

https://factor.am/477475.html

earthquakes are becoming more frequent

2019: 1506

2020: 1665

2021: 2547

The stronger the quake, the more aftershocks come later. That was the case in February 2021 when two strong quakes shook eastern Armenia and the region near Yerevan.

Experts warned against illegally extending buildings with unauthorized modifications.

VIDEO: seismic base isolation can save buildings in the event of a strong earthquake

The SBI separates the building from the ground and absorbs the shock. The building's top and bottom move parallel to the ground instead of deforming. The result is a quake that feels 8-10x weaker.

The report says that Armenia has 55 buildings equipped with SBI, which places the country at #2 in the world per capita. Japan is obviously #1.

The system was introduced in Armenia in 1993 by Dr. Mikael Melkumyan. Soviet buildings are meant to withstand 7-8 bal (not magnitude) earthquakes, which means Armenia is vulnerable. A 1988-style quake in Yerevan could kill 300,000 people.

Dr. Melkumyan: This SBI has 14 layers of 9mm rubber bearings, and 13 layers of 2.5mm metal bearings. It helps hold the building's gargantuan weight.

New buildings should use SBI by default, while the old ones should be equipped with it. The Blood Center had it done.

The SBI tech that I used requires just $40 per m^2 compared to $180 in traditional methods. The traditional method could require years to finish while this one needs 3-4 months. They last at least 150 years. //

https://youtu.be/F84uWcYC0As https://youtu.be/ewXPRIPLinw www.civilnet.am/news/650561/ինչպես-կտրել-շենքերը-երկրակեղևից․-սեյսմամեկուսացման-համակարգի-շուրջ/

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News archive: http://www.armeniapedia.org/wiki/Daily_Anti-Corruption_Reports Donations: soldiers' families, humanitarian aid, US tax-deductible donation.

The accused are innocent unless proven guilty in the court of law, even if they "appear" guilty.

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Link to original report and comments: https://www.reddit.com/r/armenia/comments/sxdq6t/news_digest_feb202022_interview_with_army_expert/