2022 January 12

Daily news wrap-up

Jan/12/2022: Armenia fortified border & destroyed illegal Azeri outpost w/ammo storage __ 2020 war analysis; new details __ Analysts on Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, CSTO, & Geopolitics __ NATO & Russia __ Pashinyan's surprise __ Fertility & benefit aid __ Marutyan's testimony __ Artsakh tourism; guides
by ar_david_hh

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This is your 15-minute Wednesday briefing in 3787 words.

Armenian soldiers destroyed an Azeri position on January 11 | Casualties | OSCE statement | Aliyev about OSCE

OSCE urged Azerbaijan and Armenia to deescalate and engage in a meaningful dialogue over the Karabakh issue.

The statement comes amid Azerbaijan's border attack on Tuesday. Armenia lost three soldiers and two were wounded. Azeri media reported the death of at least one soldier.

Military expert Karen Hovhannisyan: the enemy sustained big losses. I'm just curious how they will present their human losses now. They can hide the armored vehicle and equipment losses, but I'm curious what they will do regarding deaths. Will they claim the soldiers died on a landmine? //

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The clashes took place within Armenian territories where Azerbaijan had illegally encroached in May 2021. Immediately after the January 11 clashes, videos were circulated showing a burning position. Video 1 and Video 2. Armenian soldiers filmed the ammunition explosion.

The burning position is the one that's 2.4km within Armenian territory. It's 5km from Verin Shorzha village.

The Armenian position, from which the soldiers filmed the video, is 230 meters away. It is safe to suggest that one of the Azeri positions within Armenia has now been destroyed, concluded CivilNet's fact-checkers.

QP MP Khachatryan: the clashes took place after Armenian soldiers began fortifying their positions with engineering work. Azeris attempted to stop them. Armenia responded. It led to the clashes. //

Reporter: did Armenia contact CSTO after Azerbaijan's January 11 border provocation?

Foreign Ministry: we keep our international partners informed regularly about border incidents. On January 11, the Armenian forces neutralized the Azeri provocations. //

Azerbaijan throws a tantrum at OSCE, calls it obsolete

Aliyev does not want OSCE Minsk Group to engage in Karabakh negotiations. He repeated his claim that "the conflict is resolved", and that they don't need Minsk Group anymore, and that it's time for the co-chairs to "retire".

https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1072724.html https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1072725.html https://factor.am/462664.html https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/229103 https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1072816.html www.civilnet.am/news/646133/հայաստանի-տարածքում-ադրբեջանական-դիրք-է-ոչնչացվել․-լուսանկարների-ուսումնասիրություն/ https://www.azatutyun.am/a/31650761.html https://youtu.be/BG4YoHqrdZI

VIDEO: Armenian peacekeepers conducted training exercises in Kazakhstan

100 Armenian soldiers were deployed to guard the water canal "Friendship" against poisoning, and the large food factory in Almaty "that feeds the whole city".

A [1] was released showing the peacekeepers in front of the factory as employees returned to work. Peacekeepers said the nearby residents and workers showed hospitality and appreciated the protection.

Kazakh Chamber of Entrepreneurs: $240M in damages were done across the country, mostly in Almaty. 1615 business and 1885 other subjects were attacked, including five media outlets. //

https://youtu.be/fd0VztuMCEA https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1072740.html https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1072749.html https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1072751.html

analyst Suren Sargsyan about geopolitics & Azerbaijan:

Aliyev is yet to pay off his debt for 2020. He owes Turkey, Israel, and Pakistan. They won't be asking for cash, however.

Israel will want specific anti-Iranian actions. Turkey will have them act against Russia.

There are two processes happening: the formation of the Ottoman empire by Turkey, and [Russia's attempt to revive USSR]. Both will try to convince Azerbaijan to join them. In the end, Aliyev has to betray one of them.

Azerbaijan will become the main battleground. It appears Kazakhstan's issue is now closed with the failure of the Pan-Turks. Russia will now attempt to have Azeris join EAEU, while Turkey will try to stop it.

Revolutions and coups are common in the Turkic and Arab worlds. Aliyev is no better than his fellow Arab dictators. If Ghadaffi and Mubarak didn't make it, Aliyev shouldn't pretend to be a tough guy.

Today there is no consensus among internal and external forces about a revolution in Azerbaijan. But Aliyev has to make a clear choice, or else someone else will do it. //

https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/229108

US State Department: Ukraine and Georgia must do a lot of work before they can join NATO

The countries do not currently meet the standards. Ukraine is already going through a certain process but it could take a while to meet the high standards, said the State Dept official.

https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1072800.html

negotiations continue between NATO and Russia

Russia: NATO's expansion contains unacceptable risks for Russia's security.

NATO: the issue of Europe's safety is being discussed. The differences persist regarding Ukraine. NATO won't agree to concessions about its possible expansion. It won't be easy to come to an agreement with Russia. Nevertheless, sitting at the negotiation table is already a positive step.

https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1072803.html https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1072808.html

gov't will aid new businesses that kickstarted during the brief ban on Turkish imports

Pashinyan administration banned the import of most Turkish products after the war. The embargo lastest a year and helped create several manufacturing businesses. But there were also complaints from other businesses, so they decided to lift the embargo.

Minister Kerobyan: we will prepare aid for the newly launched local businesses to help them finish the formation and development process so they can be competitive.

I personally wanted the ban to last longer but the govt and several agencies consulted and decided to lift it. There were many businesses that were against the ban.

We need long-term and favorable peace for Armenia so people can focus on long-term investments. Today the investor thinks about the short-term. There are very few 10-year plans. Armenia has been unable to develop like similar countries due to decades of conflict. //

Reporter: the opposition criticizes and says that laying asphalt alone isn't enough to grow the economy. You talk about double-digit growth yet it's only the foreign debt that grows double-digit.

Kerobyan: laying asphalt is a fraction of what we do. We're working on healthcare, science, education, and all aspects of life. Scientific funding used to be so little that today we are almost doubling it. We aren't there yet, and you can ask our critics why.

Why were all the scientists leaving Armenia? Why is public health in such a bad shape in Armenia? Why do people graduate school without knowing the difference between Ohm and Amp?

Returning to the peace topic. Lack of peace was beneficial for officials who were running a corrupt system. The conflict was their leverage to maintain power. The result we have today is a worn-out infrastructure and poor human capital, which now requires orders of magnitude more investments to turn us into a competitive state. //

https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1072754.html https://factor.am/462453.html

2020 war analysis by Douglas Barrie at London based "International Institute for Strategic Studies", and a group of Russian and Armenia analysts

It is true that drones played a big role, but to claim they were the only thing that mattered, is false. More important was Azerbaijan's educated use of various technologies during the campaign.

The 2020 war was the first interstate conflict during which attack drones were used at a wide scale to destroy land targets. Azeri drones worked better than Armenian ground troops.

However, the results of the drone campaign do not make armored vehicles obsolete. Armenia did not have adequate, modern, and scattered air defense to protect from air attacks.

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Armenia entered the war with 35 air units, with the most notable ones being Su-30SM (4 unused units), and Su-25 (12 units)

Azerbaijan entered the war with 55 units. They had Su-25 and Mig-29.

Azerbaijan better utilized its jets by integrating them with drones. They've also been routinely training their pilots. Starting 2015, Azeri pilots have trained with their Turkish counterparts every year during TurAz exercises.

Azerbaijan modernized its fleet after the fall of the USSR by replacing old jets with Mig-29. The ones used during the war were reportedly purchased from Ukraine.

Several Turkish F-16 jets were deployed in Ganja airport. Some of them remained there for the 2020 war.

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The most powerful combat aircraft in the arsenal of the two countries is Armenia's Su-30SM. Four units were delivered not long ago. Discussions to purchase them began in 2012 but Armenia was unable to pay. The negotiations resumed in 2018 and a contract was signed later that year, with MOD Davit Tonoyan announcing plans to purchase as many as possible. In mid-2020 he announced plans to purchase another 4 units soon.

Although Armenia had the jets, it's another question whether they had enough experienced pilots to use them. Even if some of the Su-25 pilots retrained to use these jets, Armenia would still have a significant shortage of experience and flight hours. Su-30SMs weren't used during the war.

Premier Pashinyan announced that the ammunition for Su-30SM wasn't installed in time. Satellite photos showed Su-30SM parked in Gyumri airport in October 2020. In other photos, an Armenian aircraft is seen with P-73 and P-27P air-to-air missiles.

P-73 is a short-range infrared-guided missile. P-27P is a passive radar self-guided medium-range missile. Despite being old, these missiles can still pose threat if used wisely. Azeri Mig-29 uses the same.

Traditional airforce was used relatively little. In the case of the Armenian Su-30SM, it was likely due to lack of training due to jets being new, as well as the fact that Armenia lost several other jets.

Turkey stationed its F-15s in Ganja before moving them to Gabala. After Armenia fired two P-17 missiles [Scud?] in an attempt to destroy them, the jets were moved from Gabala to Lankoran on October 22.

On September 29, Armenia lost a Su-25. Armenia reported that an F-16 shot it down, which was denied by Turkey and Azerbaijan. Rumors circulated that it was Azeri Mig-29 that shot it.

Azerbaijan was using Su-25 at medium or high altitudes, while Armenia used them at a very low altitude, at least on several occasions. Azerbaijan used uncontrolled concrete-piercing БЕТАБ-500 and controlled ОФАБ-250 missiles. The latter is a Russian weapon modernized in Turkey [lasers and stuff]. It allowed the Azeri Su-25 to fly at medium altitude. Bayraktar TB2 was also used for laser guidance. Azeris conducted 600 flights with Su-25.

Armenian Su-25 didn't have controlled munition. What also made things more difficult for Armenia was the air defense systems used by Azerbaijan. Israel, besides the drones and ballistic missiles, also delivered ABISR (Barak) systems. Baku was also using Russian S-300PM/PU-2, which are the more modern versions of Armenia's S-300.

Since only Azeri Su-25s were flying at higher altitudes, it made things easier for Azerbaijan because they knew that anything that flies low is Armenian. [smaller chance of friendly fire]

Azerbaijan used very old An-2 aircraft to target Armenian air defense. 60 units were seen parked in Yevlakh airport. After the war, less than half were left. They were used to bait the Armenian air defense to expose their location. It's unclear how effective this tactic was, however. An-2 were also used as suicide drones.

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Armenia and Azerbaijan used drones during the war. Azeris had more and a wider variety. It started in 2008 with the purchase of Aerostar surveillance drones. Within the next decade, they purchased Hermes 450, Hermes 900, Heron, and Sky Striker kamikaze.

Armenians used a more lightweight X-55, and reportedly Orlan-10. Armenia did not use striker drones. Armenian surveillance drones were less effective than Azerbaijan's.

While Azerbaijan observed the global use of drones and decided to expand its arsenal for over a decade, the Armenian army did not pay special attention to this. Although it is difficult to stop small drones, you can still use passive tools such as camouflage and concealment tools. Scattering the equipment and spreading misinformation are some of the ways to minimize your losses. There are more modern radio-frequency tools for this [ռադիոհաճախականության պելենգացիայով էլեկտրամագնիսական ճառագայթման վերահսկումը]. Most of the destroyed Armenian equipment was in an open area, improperly dug, without concealment.

Although Azerbaijan had purchased surveillance and kamikaze drones from Israel, the much-talked-about Bayraktar combat drones were delivered just before the war. Reports about purchasing them began in June 2020. Since the drones were new and they were used from the beginning of the war, a question arises about the level of support that Azerbaijan received to operate them. Turkey obviously helped Azeris during the war. We just don't know the exact scope.

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Bayraktar is an unremarkable medium-weight drone with relatively modest specs. The development started in 2007 and entered service in 2014. Its sensor tower is equipped with an electro-optical laser-guided infrared targeting system. During a post-war military parade, they displayed it equipped with MAM-L 22kg laser-guided semi-active bombs with 8km maximum reach if used from a high altitude. It can target stationary and mobile objects.

Israel delivered kamikaze drones: Harop, Sky Striker, Orbiter. Their role was quite significant.

In the past decade, Azerbaijan spent a lot more resources on the army, and spent it wisely. They also received significant support from Turkey, in a way that Armenia could not receive from others. //

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[More from other analysts, mostly Russian and Armenian]

Karabakh lost 60% of its air defense and 40% of artillery within the first hour of the war. Those losses significantly degraded Karabakh's ability to defend its airspace and forced Armenia to use some of its air defenses piecemeal afterward to protect them.

Azeris did not begin capturing significant lands until the second week. Armenia's weakened air defense made it easier for Azeris later. Drone attacks did not allow Armenia to send reinforcements. It affected morale.

Armenian radar coverage was significantly limited by the mountains once they retreated into those terrains, and the terrain also limited the ability of armor or air defense systems to maneuver without being detected by Azeri drones, as there were only a few main roads.

One of the reasons Armenia failed is because they did not invest in modern air defense systems to target drones, camouflage positions against aviation, and reinforce fortifications, which had not been significantly upgraded since the 1990s. These shortcomings were surprising given Azerbaijan's public emphasis on drones and aviation.

Karabakh lost 90% of Osa-AK/M air defense during the war. They weren't originally designed against drones and were often unable to function due to electronic warfare. Armenia's drones also struggled due to EW interference.

Although Armenia reportedly possessed Buk-M1-2 air defense and had purchased Verba MANPADS in 2016, they did not receive any of the MANPADS by the beginning of the conflict [👍], and it's not clear if they actually had the Buk. [👍]

Russia reportedly allowed Armenia to paint some Buk-M1-2 systems from the Russian military and display them during the Armenian parade, but they were not in Armenian service when the war began [👍 the useless dick-swinging in Republic Square 👍]. A senior Karabakh official, however, said they were in Armenian service but 5 of 6 systems were not operational. [👍👍👍👍👍👍👍]

According to some sources, Armenia's aging S-125 systems shot down five Armenian Su-25 jets in a friendly fire after the jets returned from a mission.

Armenia's most modern air defense was Tor-M2KM. It was the most successful against the drones. Armenia only had six systems before the war and lost four of them.

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Sources claim Karabakh forces shot down 180 aerial targets during the war, including 7 Bayraktar drones, most of which likely crashed in Azeri territory. Turkey lost over 20 Bayraktars and Anka-S UCAVs in Karabakh.

Turkey could sustain these losses for short periods of time because it has more than 100 UCAVs in service, but Bayraktars would clearly fare worse against a peer adversary with a capable integrated air defense system or air force.

Something of mythology has emerged regarding the effectiveness of the Bayraktars and other UCAVs in modern warfare. They have so far been effective but only because they faced a relatively weak opponent.

https://www.ndc.nato.int/research/research.php?icode=738 www.civilnet.am/news/645745/օդն-ընդդեմ-օդի-ղարաբաղյան-պատերազմում․-անգլիացի-փորձագետի-վերլուծությունը/ https://www.ndc.nato.int/research/research.php?icode=738

Turkish opposition leader: Turkey's economy is collapsing

CHP chief Kılıçdaroğlu: the country isn't being governed right now. Security agencies are de facto ruling the country. Some of them are narco-barons and usurious barons.

Poverty is growing. In 2019, the gas was cut off for 74k residents for being unable to pay. It was 88k in 2020, and 108k in 2021.

Erdogan serves his dollar barons and not the citizens of Turkey. //

Lira stands at 13.23. Not as bad as a month ago, but much worse than a year earlier.

https://factor.am/462616.html

Armenian law enforcement targets an international Ponzi scheme

Investigative Committee: It launched in 2013 in Iran and used a UK-registered company as its cover. The operations in Armenia began in 2016. The suspects are citizens of several states, including Iran and Canada.

The group operated under the name VODA. They started recruiting people under the pretext of "phased training courses" to obtain the opportunity to engage in business operations as an "internationally reputed company".

>The recruited members were told to get registered at [websites] and make fake hotel package bookings ranging from 450 to 21,000 USD, which was presented to them as a guaranteed investment and condition for joining their company.

Iranian law enforcement shut down the UK-registered company's operations in 2018. Several members re-organized and registered a similar company in Canada, and resumed operations in Armenia under the branch Onyxum.com.

They opened offices in Yerevan and other towns with a promise that members would make money by recruiting others.

11 people face criminal charges in Armenia for launching and operating the Ponzi scheme. //

https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1072730.html https://youtu.be/JEyLlB3ztEM

surpriseeeee!!! Pashinyan appoints Mishik's brother to a Justice Ministry position

Serj Sargsyan's fugitive son-in-law Mikael Minasyan's brother Grigor has been appointed as deputy justice minister. He earlier worked at a private law firm before moving to various at govt-run institutions. He is also a diplomat representing Armenia abroad. He was a Yerevan municipality councilman until 2018, representing HHK.

HHK MP Mamijanyan: the reason they entrusted Grigor is that he is critical of his brother Mikael. //

https://factor.am/462555.html https://iravaban.net/159126.html https://factor.am/462607.html

anti-corruption: several businesses concealed employees and sales in 4Q2021.

IRS inspectors: We investigated 52 large businesses with annual ֏400M turnover and discovered 7 instances of not registering employees and 50 instances of not printing sales receipts.

138 catering industry businesses were investigated. We found 38 unregistered employees and 114 receipt violations. //

https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1072732.html

authorities: no evidence of crime found after ex-Yerevan Mayor Hayk Marutyan reported "receiving phone calls" and "pressure"

You may recall that on the day when he got fired, mayor Marutyan claimed that, throughout his tenure, some people had called and asked him to appoint friends at various municipal positions, and that he allegedly refused. The ruling party councilmen urged Marutyan to give specific names, while the authorities launched an investigation.

Marutyan also claimed that some municipal council members were "pressured" to vote in favor of replacing him. A separate investigation was launched over that claim.

Authorities: the investigation revealed that the council's ruling fraction and its members held meetings to discuss their fraction's plans about replacing the mayor. None of the meetings/contacts were found to contain elements of a crime.

Hayk Marutyan was invited to provide more information about the "phone call" claim. While in the station, Marutyan did not provide specific details, and said that it was a general statement that he had made publicly to point out his ideological approaches, and that he doesn't want to report anyone specifically. No evidence of a crime was found during that investigation. //

https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1072787.html

bill: store shelves to separate dairy products with artificial additives from natural products

Today a relevant Parliamentary committee approved the Government's bill to separate the products with milk fat substitutes in grocery stores. The bill was amended.

QP MP Tunyan: dairy products can be made of natural milk or vegetable oils and substitutes. The consumer is often misled. The proposal is to have separate shelves. The initial bill applied to all grocery stores, but we learned that it would be impossible to implement in many small stores, so the amended version will apply to stores with >200 m^2 area. //

The Committee gave it a green light.

https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1072738.html

Bangladesh wants to sign a free trade agreement with EAEU bloc

The country is "preparing for a socioeconomic status change". The annual trade between Bangladesh and the five EAEU states is currently at $1.5B ($400 to EAEU, $1.100 to Bangl.) Parties believe they can multiply trade. The first steps to deepen cooperation were taken in 2019.

https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1072750.html

deputy Education Minister wants to investigate why 68% of children with special education needs are boys

There are 8,100 such students in Armenia this year. 68% are boys, said Zhanna Andreasyan.

https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/229148

hundreds of women got pregnant with the help of an infertility treatment program

Healthcare Ministry had launched a program to help couples get pregnant. Last year there were 857 applicants, 211 successful pregnancies, and 76 births (the rest will be born soon).

Official: the funding for this program sharply increased, leading to these numbers. When it launched, the budget was ֏300M in 2020, and ֏500M in 2021. The 2022 budget is the same but the government is ready to increase it if more couples apply.

The fertility program includes tests to uncover and treat the problem, artificial insemination, and fertilization.

There are six groups of recipients: soldiers and those in similar groups, soldiers' parents, families enrolled in the family benefit system, most disabled residents, residents living near borders, age-related, etc. //

Full: https://youtu.be/APCcMSub3Lo?t=61 https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1072759.html https://mediamax.am/am/news/society/34790/

Artsakh, too, has increased the size of minimum pensions, childbirth aid, and other benefits

President Arayik: Unemployed mother's maternity benefit will go from ֏253K to ֏313K. Parents who take care of a child under the age of 2 will receive ֏33K instead of ֏27K per month. ֏50K per month for six years for third and subsequent childbirth.

The minimum pension went from ֏26.5K to ֏34.3K per month. Officers and contracts will receive an additional ֏25K.

Conscripts' disability pensions will rise from ֏40K to ֏54.5K for Group-1.

Full list: https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1072797.html

tourism statistics from Artsakh Republic

4,400 foreigners visited Artsakh last year. That's +46% from 2020, and -90% from 2019.

https://factor.am/462543.html

Diasporan Committee published a repatriation guide in two more languages

The guide explains how things work, what documents they need, etc.

Eastern Armenian

Western Armenian

French

Spanisch

English

Russian

https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/229138

COVID stats

6.1k tested. 289 infected. 83 healed. 4 deaths.

https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1072733.html

Armenians called the emergency hotline 1.433 million times last year

6.6k calls about fire, 4.6k road accidents, 7.8k household incidents, and 1.2k prank calls by morons.

https://factor.am/462573.html

PHOTO: winter at Yerevan Zoo

https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/229113

several NGOs and non-parliamentary parties were chosen to join the Constitutional reform commission

There are bipartisan efforts to fix the constitution. Several NGOs and parties applied to join. The Justice Ministry said the following applicants met the requirements and will be invited:

NGO Helsinki Citizens Assembly - Vanadzor (Arthur Sakunts)

NGO Informed Citizens Union (Daniel Ioannisyan)

NGO Europe in Law (Tigran Yegoyan)

PARTY Bright Armenia

PARTY Republic

(there will be several other participants in the commission)

https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1072770.html

more

The news in русский (by Impossible-Ad-).

News archive: http://www.armeniapedia.org/wiki/Daily_Anti-Corruption_Reports Donations: soldiers' families, humanitarian aid, US tax-deductible donation.

The accused are innocent unless proven guilty in the court of law, even if they "appear" guilty.

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Link to original report and comments: https://www.reddit.com/r/armenia/comments/s2fx1e/jan122022_armenia_fortified_border_destroyed/