2021 December 14

Daily news wrap-up

Dec/14/2021: Interview with Gerard Libaridian; Karabakh conflict history & Armenia's options; Vazgen & Kocharyan __ Armenia thwarts Azeri UN efforts __ Russian drones __ Biden wants Erdogan to open borders __ AM-EU-AZ meet in Brussels __ Anti-corruption busts __ Vax & Covid stats __ Bus fare & metro
by ar_david_hh

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This is your 15-minute Tuesday report in 3934 words.

Azerbaijan pulls "Elizabeth Holmes", gets caught using logos without permission while pushing a narrative at UN, gets thwarted by Armenian delegation

A UN conference is being held between December 13-17. Azerbaijan ignored its own problems and attempted to discredit Armenia, Artsakh, and Armenian diasporan organizations.

Azerbaijan attempted to portray Armenian organizations as terrorism sponsors, and to present the efforts towards Artsakh's right to self-determination as "separatism" and "terrorism".

Without permission from the UN Office on Drugs & Crime, Azerbaijan used its logo on the materials to give the impression that UNODC is a co-organizer of the Azeri event.

Armenian delegation, headed by General prosecutor Arthur Davtyan, took steps to counter the Azeri propaganda. They contacted UNODC, and the latter demanded Azerbaijan remove the logos.

Armenian speakers blasted Azerbaijani propaganda against famous Armenian organizations. They spoke about Azerbaijan's violation of international laws and the 2020 aggression. They also publicly reminded Azerbaijan about the World Court ruling that requires Azerbaijan to end racial hatred.

>A very limited number of foreigners physically participated in the meeting, who left the hall immediately after the speech of the Armenian delegation.

https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1070774.html

Russia claims it has drones better than Bayraktar

Deputy Premier Borisov: the devices developed in Russia have superior technical characteristics. We have the opportunity to play in this market. Unfortunately, we entered the market a little late.

Historically, it's been dominated by Israeli, American, and Chinese producers who have been active in the past 5-6 years. Russia has an opportunity to enter the market. The latest expo was in Dubai, where we presented our models. //

https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070739.html

will the Parliamentary Security Committee ever have a deputy chief?

Kocharyan-ARF alliance nominated HD MP Ghazinyan 14 times but did not do so last week, leaving the door open for the ruling party to nominate the deputy, said the Committee chief QP Andranik K. However, the ruling party did not nominate a candidate and will give the opposition another opportunity to fill that seat next week.

HD alliance said they aren't legally required to officially re-nominate Ghazinyan because his nomination is "rollover", until the "ruling party changes its mind" and confirms Ghazinyan's appointment. They won't change their nominee.

The ruling party disagreed, saying the opposition has to go through a formal nomination process each time.

https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070685.html https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070695.html

interview with Levon Ter-Petrosyan-era diplomat & historian Gerard Libaridian

First president LTP's former adviser and former deputy MFA Gerard Libaridian gave an interview yesterday, during which he said he believes it is wrong to focus on Artsakh's legal status at this stage, an idea shared by General Samvel Babayan.

They believe any status negotiation right now will lead to Artsakh becoming de jure part of Azerbaijan. Libaridian has criticized all administrations for not agreeing to concessions.

Reporter: LTP once said that there are only six people truly knowledgeable in the Karabakh conflict resolution process, with you being one of them. You were warning about Turkey before the war. How come others didn't see the danger.

Libaridian: the whole world, including our friends, have been saying that they wouldn't recognize Artsakh, and that Armenia was an occupier. This has been said for 30 years by every country. How come our politicians were ignoring it?

Reporter: when did Armenia have the best chance?

Libaridian: September of 1997, when OSCE offered a phased solution. It wouldn't give status to Artsakh but would leave the window open for later. Every sign pointed to Azerbaijan's willingness to sign that agreement.

The first stage would give us all the guarantees. 1) International peacekeepers after Armenian withdrawal from adjacent regions. 2) Azerbaijan would not place heavy artillery in the adjacent territories. 3) Normalization of relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey 4) Address the status.

UN Security Council would also adopt this, besides OSCE. This would be a binding agreement. // Full interview is here.

Libaridian criticized the practice of focusing only on what would happen if we agreed to a deal, and not on what would happen if we rejected a deal.

He spoke about how only Russia would arm Armenia, but only to limited capacity.

Reporter: do we lack true allies because of bad diplomacy on our part?

Libaridian: we had very good diplomats but you cannot expect the impossible. On one occasion Artsakh MFA Arkadiy Ghukasyan called me a great diplomat but he said my bosses were telling me to promote the wrong diplomacy, and that I was so good that I could convince the world that the plain yogurt is black. I responded to him saying that I'm a "good diplomat" because I don't try to convince the world that the yogurt is black.

We've had friendly international politicians but they never took our side where it truly mattered. When Raffi Hovhannisyan was MFA in 1992, he wanted to recognize Artsakh's independence. There was a belief that many countries would follow suit.

LTP was skeptical. Raffi said he could get it done. He visited South Africa and returned with the message that Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay are ready. LTP said he would recognize Artsakh immediately if any of those countries do so. "We're waiting for any country to recognize."

LTP vetoed the 1996 Lisbon document. Nobody protected us in that meeting. Chernomyrdin was there, U.S. VP Al Gore, our allies France, Greece, and Cyprus. Nobody defended us because they made business calculations with Azerbaijan, and they were thinking about the world order after the collapse of the USSR. Their stance was they would recognize only USSR republics but not autonomous republics within the republics.

If you demand the impossible, you will get nothing. If you pursue the possible, you will gain something.

Libaridian about Artsakh status: it's an issue consisting of two parts.

1) There was an autonomous oblast. This region with its people should have territorial autonomy, not just "cultural" autonomy.

2) This autonomous region will be part of which country? Azerbaijan, Armenia, Russia, UN? I don't know. There are different solutions.

Before the war, per international law, the 2nd part was already answered: it was Azeri territory. Only Armenia was disputing it. After the war, the issue was resolved de facto. We no longer have the issue of the 7 adjacent regions, which was the main difference between Artsakh and Ossetia/Transnistria/etc. Artsakh's conflict was much more complex than the others because it contained the element of the disputed territory capturing the other country's territories outside its borders. I wrote that Azerbaijan would go to war just for those 7 regions alone, and if it does, it won't stop at those 7 regions.

Did any country complain about Azerbaijan starting the war or entering NKAO proper in 2020? No. Everyone supported the November 9 statement.

Reporter: OSCE co-chairs say the conflict has not been resolved yet. What is it about?

Libaridian: it's about the 1st point I mentioned above. Co-chairs have no disputes about within whose territory the autonomous region should be. When OSCE says the conflict isn't resolved yet, some Armenians mistakenly believe there is still a chance for full independence.

If full independence was impossible before, then it's even more impossible today, and Armenia has no military capacity to change that.

Those who refer to OSCE's statement and claim full independence is possible, or those who still want Western Armenia, are very irresponsible.

I recently met the U.S. State Department officials and Security Council. I told the U.S. that they are making a big mistake when their ambassador publicly claims that the issue of Artsakh status has not been resolved yet. If you're not going to demand Artsakh's independence, then don't talk about the status. People should not develop wrong expectations.

Armenia should continue to provide humanitarian and security assistance to Artsakh. What we have left today should be protected as a territorial entity. This is possible if we don't chase full independence.

We need to face the reality and Armenia's limited capabilities. We have two options.

First. Unsuccessfully try to create a stronger army with new weapons. Kocharyan and Serj took power for 20 years after LTP, and what exactly did they achieve? Why were they unable to turn Armenia into Israel?

Second. Policies by Artsakh authorities may not match with the Armenian government's policies. I don't have insider info, but today Artsakh is calling for a much closer economic and other integration with Russia. Artsakh also wants Armenia to be closer to Russia.

Reporter: Sochi meeting statement read that the sides had reached an agreement over unblocking communication, but the rhetoric changed once the leaders returned to their capitals. Why?

Libaridian: sometimes people reach an agreement over general terms but not over details. They will try to create momentum about progress. Sometimes it works.

It's also possible that the leaders might have agreed to specific terms under Russian pressure in Sochi but rejected it once they were back home. That's what happened when Kocharyan and Heydar Aliyev agreed to resolve the conflict through the territorial exchange: Armenia gives Meghri corridor to Azerbaijan, and takes Karabakh.

Kocharyan and Aliyev reached an agreement but once they were back home, problems arose. Aliyev reported the results to his MFA, CoGS, etc. and they all resigned within two days. And in Armenia, Kocharyan held a Security Council meeting during which some participants found it unacceptable.

Reporter: can things escalate to a new war?

Libaridian: there is always the possibility. Pashinyan is more pragmatic today than before, which is necessary. In Azerbaijan, they can't make up their mind. I gave an interview to Azatutyun Azerbaijan outlet and I criticized their policies of threatening with war if they don't get a corridor, while at the same time they claim to want peace. You have to choose one.

Reporter: the Kocharyan-Serj wing claims your administration [LTP in 90s] is largely responsible for today's problems.

Libaridian: we have not made major mistakes in the Karabakh conflict, only minor ones. It is our policies that led to the September 1997 agreement offer. Our mistake was allowing Kocharyan-Vazgen-Serj to oppose us. The trio prevented us from going with the deal.

We would recognize and talk about our problems, while others were saying "the problem is resolved". We did not rely on Paris and Washington. We were diplomatically active, trying to resolve the conflict, knowing it would be impossible to do later.

After the 1998 [LTP departure], all future administrations subscribed to crazy policies. But it all began with the Kocharyan-Vazgen-Serj trio. Vazgen would later change his mind [and support LTP's negotiation deal].

It was before his murder. I spoke with him 3 weeks before the Parliament attack. He came back from the U.S. trip and I asked him what he thinks, and he understood we couldn't expect any major support, only small lobbying efforts. He changed his stance that we shouldn't give lands that were captured with our soldier's blood.

Others did not change their stance and are responsible for what we have today. These are parties with maximalist demands, not one-incher, those who would terrorize any official or public figure who would call for concessions.

If we continue with the old mentality, we can lose more.

We need a territorial status for Artsakh, even if it's autonomy. We aren't going to get more than that. I know it's difficult for some to accept that, some call it a "treason".

I agree with LTP that this isn't about giving or not giving away Artsakh, it's about keeping Artsakh Armenian, but I'm not entirely sure if we can do that considering international development. But it's possible that the world could become more involved in our region and have a more pro-Armenian stance, or it could be the opposite.

Reporter: critics say that maybe time will come and we will have stronger positions and we can achieve more, so why go for concessions today?

Libaridian: that was the mentality of the past 20 years under all administrations. What else does need to happen to Artsakh and Armenia for people to understand that we do not and have never had "time". //

what will Armenia and Turkey discuss in upcoming meetings?

Yesterday we learned that Armenia and Turkey will appoint representatives to meet and attempt to normalize relations. Turkey said they will launch charter flights to Yerevan.

Armenian officials confirmed the planned meetings, aimed at discussing regional issues, and said Armenia will soon choose its representative who will give more details about the meetings.

Opposition ARF is against any meetings with Turkey for now because it could be "risky and dangerous".

QP Edward Aghajanyan: Armenia has always been open to establishing relations with Turkey without conditions by either party. This is about establishing diplomatic ties, which is in Armenia's best interest.

We cannot forever avoid our neighbors, and our neighbors cannot avoid us. There is no alternative to establishing relations. It won't be easy because of the past 30 years, but we are willing to do it. //

https://youtu.be/1J85qm5W8fk https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070689.html https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070699.html https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070712.html

Joe Biden urged Erdogan to open the border with Armenia

... during the October meeting, according to Bloomberg, which believes that Turkey is taking steps to normalize ties with Armenia in a bid to please Biden.

>Turkey hopes that taking steps to normalize ties with Armenia will help Ankara improve its strained relations with Washington over its purchase of Russian air defenses.

https://www.panarmenian.net/arm/news/297350/ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-13/turkey-moves-to-normalize-armenia-ties-in-bid-to-please-biden

Russia and France discussed the Sochi meeting between AM-AZ

They spoke about the Karabakh conflict resolution, ceasefire, unblocking of communication routes.

https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070757.html

NATO chief: we support the normalization of AM-AZ relations

Security and stability in the South Caucasus is important for all of us and the people in the region, said Jans Stoltenberg.

https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070760.html

Artsakh government: Azerbaijan must return the occupied territories and Artsakh must have a direct land connection with Armenia

State Minister Artak Beglaryan urged Azerbaijan to return the occupied Nagorno-Karabakh territories and to stop drawing parallels between the Lachin corridor in the hope to get other "corridors" from Armenia.

https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070777.html

Premier Pashinyan visited Brussels for EU Eastern Partnership Summit

The president of the European Council Charles Michel held separate meetings with Pashinyan and Aliyev. They discussed border delimitation, humanitarian steps, unblocking of regional communication routes, and reforms in Armenia.

Pashinyan accused Azerbaijan of trying to intentionally sabotage the unblocking efforts. He said that the topic of the Lachin corridor, brought by Aliyev in an attempt to draw parallels with a "Zangezur corridor", has nothing to do with unblocking communication in the region and any of the signed documents since the ceasefire.

Tripartite AM-EU-AZ meeting began in Brussels.

https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070672.html https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070753.html https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070754.html https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070762.html https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070769.html https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070778.html

COVID stats

5.5k tested. 161 infected. 472 healed. 26 deaths.

unvaccinated patients might soon have to pay for hospital care

Healthcare Ministry: we are not satisfied with the vaccination rate. At the same time, new strains are emerging. It is possible that hospital care could become paid for unvaccinated citizens beginning February 1. Vaccines are free.

Armenia will receive 400,000 Pfizer vaccines from Portugal (obrigado or grazie?)

It's part of the Eastern Partnership program in which countries help each other during the pandemic.

95% of currently infected individuals are unvaccinated

95% of hospitalized people are unvaccinated.

94% of ICU patients are unvaccinated.

https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070680.html https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070694.html https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070714.html https://factor.am/453658.html

Armenian stem cell transplant donor helps a Canadian patient with leukemia

Donor G.A. learned that his/her stem cell is compatible with the Canadian patient and agreed to help. The patient has received the transplant and is currently recovering.

Armenian donor registry was created in 1999 and has 32,000 potential donors. 37 have since donated their stem cells. Donors are in the 18-50 age group and submit 3ml blood to find matching patients.

https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070747.html

anti-corruption: ranking Nature Ministry official is facing criminal charges

Investigative Committee: the 2012-current deputy chief of Nature Ministry's inspection agency conspired with a ranking forest protection official in 2016 to do "favors" by purging inspection logs about deforestation incidents, in exchange for a bribe. The criminal case has reached the court. //

https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070721.html

anti-corruption: 29 construction companies and Yerevan municipality officials are accused of making anticompetitive deals

Competition Protection Commission: the municipality signed asphalt-concrete contracts with several businesses in 2017-2021. We believe the contracts were anti-competitive. //

Full: http://competition.am/uploads/resources/361.pdf https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070732.html

ah ah ah, you didn't say the magic word

>!Quality, dude.!<

Government inspectors checked the quality of a new road in Zovaber (Gegharkunik) and found that it was built, marked, and cleaned improperly. The construction firm was "served papers" to correct the errors.

https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070698.html

$5 million bribery trial is delayed again

Kocharyan and HD MP Armen Gevorgyan are accused of taking millions of dollars in bribes from a mining businesswoman. Gevorgyan's lawyer was unhealthy, while the second one dropped him as a client, so the judge had to delay the trial until December 21.

https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070705.html

opposition activist Narek Malyan is detained after a report by an opposition official

Narek Malyan, a former regime activist that heads the Civic Consciousness NGO, was detained today. According to Malyan's friend, it's over a police report filed by LHK official Davit Khazhakyan relating to the "heavy insults" law.

In other news, Malyan was very recently charged with inciting violence and making death threats against George Soros's office in Armenia, after a report by Helsinki Vanadzor NGO. You may also remember Malyan as that guy who organized Pashinyan's mock execution in front of the Parliament building. He is believed to be one of the operators of the Mediaport Telegram channel that was accused of circulating disinformation after the war.

https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070696.html https://youtu.be/ONQaxT4_L4M https://factor.am/450500.html

Yerevan municipality spokesman gave an interview about the ongoing public transport reforms

Some of the info can be found in Monday post. Hakob Karapetyan discussed the bus & metro infrastructure.

Hakobyan: it takes 1-2 years to launch and finish an auction to purchase buses. The capital needs 850 buses plus a 15% reserve in total. Right now we have 100 6.6-meter buses, 211 8.6-meter buses, 200 other buses scheduled for next year, 250 buses that China donated years ago that will be used for 3 more years with govt permission. By the end of 2022, we will have 750+ buses.

The electronic payment system auction is over. We have a winner. The contract will be signed soon. The system will be installed in a few months. It will be the newest technology.

Bus stops will be revamped at a later stage. Electronic timetables may not be necessary at each bus stop by the time we reach that stage, because passengers will have access to real-time bus tracking via their phones.

Reporter: How can 100-dram ticket pay for all this? It's very cheap compared to countries that implemented transport reforms. Will the fare increase?

Hakobyan: obviously 100 dram does not cover transport costs, let alone secure enough revenue for future development. It's been 100 dram since the 1990s. Can you compare the value of 100 drams in the 90s and today? Everything has gotten more expensive except for the fare.

Currently, we don't have specific plans to raise the fare. However, we must all understand that if it costs something, then it will be paid by the taxpayer, be it through government loans, taxes, or other compensations.

Reporter: what percentage of costs does that 100 dram cover?

Hakobyan: less than half. But it depends on how we calculate: only the cost of running the buses today, or including the plan to continuously modernize the bus fleet. Some cities make buses free and subsidize the entire cost, while others do the opposite and raise the fare. Either way, it's paid by taxpayers.

Reporter: an auction was held to choose the company to build the new metro station. What's the latest progress on it?

Hakobyan: metro is more time-consuming than buses. We have a specif idea of what Ajapnyak station should look like, but we also have a general vision for other projects in the future. The auction winner is enthusiastic. They recently met the government. Metro is federal property so state funds should be used. The state will decide how much is worth spending on the metro in the future because a reformed bus network could be a substitute. Ajapnyak project will be implemented for sure. //

https://youtu.be/TpoEYCAyUSc

Central Bank president about economic growth & inflation:

We're raising the refinancing rate by 0.5%, to 7.75%. (Dram responded by strengthening against the dollar. $1=488)

We expect 4.2% economic growth this year (instead of 5.4%), and 5.3% in 2022.

The expenditures are expected to increase next year amid the government's plans for a massive increase in capital investments. Our initial prediction for 2022 was 2.4%, but we raised it to 5.3%.

Next year's capital expenditures will not only grow the economy but will pave way for future growth.

We expect this year to end with 8.4% inflation, down from 9.6%.

Central Bank president about bank deposits & loans:

Deposits in Armenian banks +4.4%. The volume of loans -9%.

Some of the large-scale loan projects implemented by the government have ended this year.

The financial system is stable. There are no liquidity problems.

Central Bank president about dram:

The exchange rate is affected by a wide range of factors. There was some dram inflation, and it wasn't just dram. Ruble and other currencies are also fluctuating due to global events.

There are no "fundamental" reasons for the fluctuation. Short-term changes always happen. The public has become much more tolerant of such fluctuations. If 5-10 years ago a 20-dram devaluation would raise major concerns, today we observe no significant difference in people's financial behavior when that occurs.

Central Bank president about the inflationary impact on the Armenian economy from the external factors:

We predict an increase in inflationary impact from external forces, but the countermeasures should bring inflation within the 4% mark.

The economies of Armenia's main partner states continue to grow quickly. Combined with limited supplies, this leads to price increases in the global market.

Central Bank president about wages:

Private sector salaries +10%. Most of the 10% growth comes from the service sector, IT sector, and tourism. The public sector salaries are lagging behind.

https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070693.html https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070722.html https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070725.html https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070729.html https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070730.html https://factor.am/453683.html https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/227453 https://arka.am/en/news/economy/armenian_central_bank_revises_downward_its_economic_growth_forecast/

Grant Thornton survey: the most attractive employers in Armenia are...

PicsArt #1

Coca-Cola, HBC Armenia, Synopsys, Ameriabank, Digitane, Titan Service, Central Bank of Armenia, Public TV, Grand Holding, and Soft Construction.

>The survey involved around 2000 students from leading Armenian universities who were asked to name the most attractive employer, regardless of the field of activity.

https://arka.am/en/news/business/survey_names_best_employers_in_armenia_/

Armenia and Estonia discussed high-tech cooperation

High-Tech Minister Khachaturyan met the Estonian ambassador today to discuss Estonia's success in the fields of digitization, e-gov, new standards. They want to form an expert group and exchange practice.

https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070683.html

Kim Kardashian is Armenian

... reminded the soon-to-be-lawyer Kim Kardashian to her critics, who accused her of "cultural appropriation" after she styled her hairs in braids and cornrows. "But then there's also a history of braiding hair in Armenia, and people forget that I am Armenian as well," she added.

https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/916724-kim-kardashian-on-blackfishing-accusations-people-forget-i-am-armenian-too

Artsakh wants to play soccer

Arayik Harutyunyan hosted the teams playing in Artsakh National League to discuss financial and pitch renovation programs. The government plans to develop the sport in the country with the help of new programs.

https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070727.html

Armenian students win medals in Megapolis Olympiad held in Moscow

Three silver and two bronze medals. Hundreds of students from around the world competed in math, informatika, physics, and chemistry.

https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1070751.html

end of report

The accused are innocent unless proven guilty in the court of law, even if they "appear" guilty.

News archive: http://www.armeniapedia.org/wiki/Daily_Anti-Corruption_Reports

Donations: soldiers' families, humanitarian aid, US tax-deductible donation.

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Link to original report and comments: https://www.reddit.com/r/armenia/comments/rgiuy8/dec142021_interview_with_gerard_libaridian/