2023 June 22

news wrap-up

[Source]: Putin "won't forgive" Pashinyan for his statements. [Interview]: Events preceding fall of Shushi. [Interview]: Armenia's new satellite is operational, has "impressive" specs. [Interview]: Armenia's new nuclear reactor could be South Korean, American, or Russian.
by ar_david_hh

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OK, one more. Today's special report contains interviews on three topics: The battle of Shushi and the բառդակ in the army, the "impressive" parameters of Armenia's new "surveillance satellite", and the plans to build a new nuclear reactor in Armenia.

interview with politician Vladimir Poghosyan, a former adviser to the army chief of the general staff before and during the 2020 war

REPORTER: Pashinyan [stated during the opening statement](https://www.reddit.com/r/armenia/comments/14eypwv/tldr_pashinyan_reveals_details_from_the_2020/) that the office of CoGS (chief of the general staff) gave him incorrect information on multiple occasions during the war. He was reportedly misled about the battles surrounding Shushi. He mentioned how Azeris cut off the Lachin road by achieving a breakthrough in the village Zarsli, which opened the path to Shushi.

POGHOSYAN: Pashinyan is using incorrect military terminology. The opponent did not actually break through our defenses in Zarislu. Our soldiers simply retreated from the area without a fight, allowing the enemy to walk in. There were no Armenian Army or Artsakh Defense Army units there. That area was guarded by policemen and special forces units from Artsakh, reporting directly to the Artsakh president. They retreated without even informing our other units about it. The opponent moved forward without resistance.

We didn't have surveillance satellites and drones during the war, so Armenia's CoGS (Yerevan) was receiving the information from the Artsakh Defense Army (Stepanakert). These retreating units didn't inform Yerevan or Artsakh Defense Army about it.

REPORTER: Why did they retreat?

POGHOSYAN: I don't know.

REPORTER: Did President Arayik know about their retreat?

POGHOSYAN: By judging from Pashinyan's statement that it was Arayik who informed him about it, it's evident that there was no proper management system and Pashinyan did not have proper advisers. Artsakh's NSS and police forces did not report to Armenia's CoGS. The chain of reporting system was disorganized. Why was Pashinyan receiving information directly from the president of Artsakh and not from his own CoGS? Why were there two lines of communication?

REPORTER: So why did Armenia's CoGS provide inaccurate information to Pashinyan?

POGHOSYAN: That's not true.

REPORTER: Pashinyan says the info he received from President Arayik was more accurate than the info provided to him by his own CoGS.

POGHOSYAN: Why was he even receiving info from the president of Artsakh during the war? That's not how the system should work. There shouldn't be two parallel systems.

REPORTER: Where was the main command headquarters?

POGHOSYAN: Yerevan. The others, from Artsakh, were subordinates.

REPORTER: But this Zarsli retreat contradicts that. It shows that Yerevan was not receiving info or giving out the orders.

POGHOSYAN: Arayik gathered information and called Pashinyan. Then, after some delay, they contacted Armenia's CoGS. Why was it so important to provide that info to Pashinyan in such an urgent manner? He wasn't the one making battle plans, he was a civilian figure. The CoGS should be the priority.

REPORTER: Doesn't Armenia's CoGS have its representatives in Artsakh? Do they have to wait for President Arayik to pick up the phone and provide info?

POGHOSYAN: CoGS does have its sources in Artsakh. That source is the commander of the Artsakh Defense Army, who was directly reporting to CoGS.

REPORTER: Tell us about the conflicting reports around Shushi.

POGHOSYAN: On November 2, the commander of the Artsakh Defense Army Mikhael Arzumanyan issued an order to appoint a figure to coordinate the situation around Shushi. He informed Armenia's CoGS about it. However, the following day, president Arayik struck that order and appointed Seyran Ohanyan to handle that task, without first consulting with Artsakh Defense Army and Armenia's CoGS.

Pashinyan may accuse the military of being disorganized, but it was the fault of civilian leadership in Armenia and Artsakh that we were in that mess. All the communication between the civilian leaderships of Armenia and Artsakh should have gone through Armenia's CoGS.

REPORTER: But was CoGS actually aware of what was happening on the ground?

POGHOSYAN: Of course.

REPORTER: Is that actually so?

POGHOSYAN: You are defending Nikol now...

REPORTER: This isn't about defending anyone. Nikol Pashinyan has accused the army command of being clueless about the developments on the battlefield, so he had to rely on Arayik. Or was the CoGS intentionally misleading Pashinyan? I'm trying to get your opinion on it.

POGHOSYAN: There is no proof CoGS was lying to him. Artsakh Army reports to Armenian CoGS, who then reports to Pashinyan. That's how it works. We can't have a second parallel system.

REPORTER: Tell us about the events that unfolded around Shushi.

POGHOSYAN: On November 4, accompanied by [wounded Artsakh Defense Army commander] Jalal Harutyunyan's brother, I entered Shushi to meet the միլ․պետ military chief of Shushi. I asked them about the state of unpreparedness that we observed while traveling through the city. They told me that our soldiers were gathered near the [prison building]. Why the hell would they be there, I asked them.

Listen, Pashinyan. I'll tell you exactly how they surrendered Shushi:

We roll out the maps and divide the city into 4 sections. I instruct them to form 3 defense lines in each of the 4 sections. I warn them that the opponent will attempt to advance from the area near Nemets Rubo's villa.

If it was up to me, I would have organized a successful defense. I had a team of 54 strong fighters, mostly young conscripts but they were really tough kids who had slaughtered Yashma [Azeri special forces] earlier, but I knew they would not be enough so I asked them [military chief of Shushi] to give me 100 additional volunteers.

That evening I ordered my men to prepare to take up positions in Shushi and prepare for battle because the opponent was approaching. We drafted a plan. I had a strong case of COVID at the time, everyone in our unit was sick. Anyways, we enter the city to take our positions but are unable to locate the military chief. I ask the police forces to call him. They call the Colonel in front of me. He says he's on his way.

The opponent launches airstrikes while we wait for the military chief to arrive. An hour goes by. I ask them to call him again. He says he's 20 minutes away. Three hours later, still no sign of him. I realize he'll never come because someone ordered him not to cooperate with us. I just needed 100 volunteers.

REPORTER: OK, they didn't give you 100 men, but weren't there other units who could fight the enemy?

POGHOSYAN: I don't know. Maybe they weren't in great shape. I can only speak for myself. The opponent ended up attacking from the spot that I warned about.

I had a source in Azerbaijan who served as an informant. He told me on September 12th [two weeks before the war] about their plans, the exact roads they planned to use, etc. Our CoGS knew about this source.

REPORTER: Did you tell Pashinyan about this source of yours?

POGHOSYAN: No. It was internal info that circulated within the CoGS office. Only those who needed to know were made aware of the source.

REPORTER: Back to November 4. Shushi's military chief is MIA. What's next?

POGHOSYAN: I don't know who gave the order not to give us 100 volunteers. We leave the city and take up our main positions outside. 2 hours later Seyran Ohanyan's wounded bodyguard approaches us [and asks for assistance.] I said sorry, but I'm not going to throw my 54 men against 600 opponents.

REPORTER: What's the current situation in Artsakh?

POGHOSYAN: If Azeris attack Artsakh today, they can advance 10 km on the first day, but if you listen to my advice, we can not only stop them but also advance.

REPORTER: Pashinyan claimed that prior to the war, during 2 years of his administration, he purchased >600 billion worth of armament, almost 2x as much armament as Serj had done during 2008-2018.

POGHOSYAN: Not disputing that, but I don't know why Pashinyan is disclosing state secrets. Since he's doing so, I'll reveal a few things myself. Pashinyan has been publicly critical of Putin's administration and essentially called Putin a liar. After Pashinyan's statements [likely means his statement to June 21st War Commission], a very high-ranking Russian official called me to ask what was happening with Pashinyan. Lately, I've been barking at Russia for not being supportive enough, but it appears Russians are coming to their senses. Anyway, this Russian official called me to discuss Pashinyan's statements. I told him "Brother, Pashinyan is your man, not mine. He is opening a Nakhijevan road and doing other stuff that you want him to do, so go and figure out yourself what he is up to."

He continues to complain. I tell him, "Well if you don't like him, then remove him from the office", lol. He tells me Putin is really mad at Pashinyan for this, and won't forgive him for that.

REPORTER: Russia claims it has sources [from the Artsakh government] that the U.S. threatened Artsakh to hold dialogue with Azerbaijan or else they [U.S. and Azerbaijan] would launch an attack against Artsakh.

[Background: Pashinyan administration, Artsakh's "pro-Western" foreign minister, and the Western powers reportedly want Artsakh to use a Western platform to hold direct talks with Azerbaijan, but Russia and Artsakh's pro-Russian officials are against this idea. The Artsakh government's official reason for rejection is that they want this dialogue to take place under the OSCE Minsk Group format, and they want to be recognized as an equal party to the conflict.]

POGHOSYAN: My sources tell me that Russia's foreign ministry is lying. The U.S. did not "threaten" Artsakh if they reject the direct talks with Azerbaijan. The U.S. was very nice and delicate to Artsakh. Let Artsakh officials worry about handling those who "leak" such misinformation to Moscow.

Full: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7U4FA_9B0yg

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Armenia's first survellience satellite is sending images; control center is operational in Armenia

Statements by government officials and a world-renowned scientist Garik Israelyan.

OFFICIAL: ArmSat was launched to orbit a year ago. It is already sending images. Prior to this, Armenia was solely a consumer of others' services. Now we can export such services. //

The TV crew was invited to [film the new control center](https://youtu.be/WjQHoRbA6co?t=712) in Armenia. This center has allowed Armenia to take control of the satellite from the Spanish company that launched the satellite. Armenian scientists have been taking pics for weeks now. The full technical and legal transfer will complete in the coming months.

The images will be used to monitor the borders, prevent emergency situations and natural disasters, topography, etc.

It has a precision of 1.65 meters and can observe a 26 km layer. 1 pixel = 1.65 meters.

GARIK ISRAELYAN: Our satellite has several strengths. Its optical resolution is ~2 meters. That's already pretty high.

Second. It is multi-spectral. It captures a full specter of colors, which is also pretty rare because similar satellites with a 2-meter resolution are usually black and white.

Third. Our satellite has a powerful gyro system that allows it to rotate the head on the fly. If you need to record the border, you can configure it to maintain filming of the border as it travels. We don't know any other satellite that has a combination of all these features.

We'll need to learn how to properly handle this satellite. If a military truck is 3 meters, we'll need to analyze 1.5-2 pixels. Once we are confident we've mastered this satellite, we can launch another one with even better parameters. My dream is to build one in Armenia. //

This satellite has a lifespan of 4 years. The government plans to launch the second satellite soon. It's going to have significantly better parameters. Part of the design and integration work will be done locally, in Armenia.

Full: https://youtu.be/WjQHoRbA6co

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interview with nuclear scientist Areg Danagulyan; whose technology should Armenia use in its new nuclear plant?

REPORTER: The gov't is considering a small-sized American modular reactor that can be expanded in the future, or a single large 1,100MW reactor from Russia. Which one is better?

DANAGULYAN: Today Armenia's energy sector is pretty diversified: 1/3rd comes from nuclear, 1/3rd from hydro, and 1/3rd from gas. Hydro makes you independent, gas makes you dependent, while nuclear makes you partially independent because you need to stockpile nuclear materials only once every 2 years.

Who your nuclear partner is, is very important. Will your partner use it for political blackmail, as Russia has done in the past? Or is it another partner that doesn't engage in that?

Realize this: if our partner is Russia then our supplier is Russia's state-run Rosatom. If our partner is the U.S., then the supplier is a private company.

REPORTER: But the U.S.-based private companies need licensing from the U.S. government.

DANAGULYAN: Yes, Armenia will need to sign the so-called 1-2-3 agreement to be able to receive nuclear technology. But once you do that, the U.S. government's involvement is minimal. It is much easier to predict the behavior of a private company because they are profit driven. Also, being based in the West, it makes their behavior more predictable because you know they'll abide by the law. If they do funny things, you can take them to court. This would be very difficult if we partner with Russia.

REPORTER: About the technology itself. What is better: a small modular or one large unit? Also, have the small 100 MW U.S. modular reactors been sufficiently tested to be safe?

DANAGULYAN: There are dozens of designs for small modular reactors. They are vastly different in terms of power output and the functionality approach.

NuScale's reactors would be extremely expensive. There are other companies that call their reactors "small modular" but in reality, they are just small reactors. For us, modularity isn't the main goal. We just need it to be small and manageable enough. We need a ~300 MW reactor or reactors.

General Electric Hitachi is currently building a 300 MW reactor in Canada, called BWRX-300. It'll likely cost $2bn.

REPORTER: That's not too expensive, is it?

DANAGULYAN: eeeehm.... when we look at the economic part, a series of other factors come into play. How much are you paying for one unit of power output? The smaller the reactor, the more "expensive" it is. However, small reactors have an advantage. Why do you think few countries in the world run nuclear reactors? Primarily because they are expensive to build and operate. Large reactors are more complex, expensive, and the likelihood of making mistakes during construction is higher.

For example. Recently, Westing House finished the construction of a reactor in Vogtle, Georgia, U.S. They are 1,000 MW reactors called AP-1000. They were supposed to cost $5bn, but the final price tag was $14bn. The smaller your reactor, the lower the probability of making a mistake during its construction.

REPORTER: Okay, Rosatom is a Russian state-run company, but let's focus purely on their technology and quality now. Are their current offerings the same as the Soviet-era reactor that we currently have, or have they been improved?

DANAGULYAN: The VVER-1200 reactors that Russia has been exporting, including to Turkey, Hungary, and even Ukraine, have a core technology that runs similarly to our Metsamor NPP - they are pressurized water reactors ("voda-voda-energetichesky reactor", abbreviated as "VVER").

The main difference is that this VVER-1200 has a containment building (obolochka). It's a large concrete building with a 1-meter thickness. The reactor is operated inside so in the event of an accident the obolochka will contain the pollutants. This drives up the construction cost.

REPORTER: Did they learn a lesson from Chernobyl?

DANAGULYAN: The Chernobyl reactor ran on a completely different technology. It had a graphite moderation system; extremely dangerous but extremely cheap.

REPORTER: I mean, did they start including these concrete hoods after the Chernobyl incident?

DANAGULYAN: No. Americans were doing it since the 1970s, but USSR did not adopt this practice until the late 1980s due to its high cost. To this day, there are 11 reactors across Russia that still operate on the extremely dangerous graphite-style tech.

Armenia's "VVER" Metsamor NPP is significantly safer than the Chernobyl NPP, but our unit also doesn't have this safety concrete cap. Our NPP has some kind of internal protective structure, but it's not as thick and strong.

Russians have mastered the VVER-1200 reactors. They've just finished building 4 units in Turkey. There are works in Belarus, etc.

Besides the political problems associated with Russia's Rosatom that I've mentioned earlier, I'm not even sure if Russia can -- under today's conditions -- build a new complex reactor. They are under sanctions and can't import many technologies.

REPORTER: Wasn't Russia using domestic technology?

DANAGULYAN: Absolutely not. A LOT of things need to be imported. If there was any Russian industry that truly needed to be self-sufficient, it was their military, but look at their struggles today. They can't even build T-72 tanks today. They are sending T-54 tanks to the battlefield. How are they supposed to build complex nuclear reactors?

REPORTER: Metsamor NPP's lifespan can be extended till 2036 or maximum 2040. How much time do we have? When should we make our final technology/partner choice and launch the construction?

DANAGULYAN: The construction alone takes 5-10 years, depending on the design and problems during the construction. Another 5 years to prepare: buy the land, prepare the soil, etc. We know from the experience of other reactors that it takes 10-15 years between drafting the plan and receiving the electricity. We do have some time, but we can't կախ գցել our ոտ.

I don't want the government to rush, though. It's not like they have a fixed 6 months and they must make the crucial decisions within the next 6 months. Take your time while making this decision. Hold discussions with international experts.

REPORTER: Any players other than U.S. and Russia?

DANAGULYAN: Yes. China has a great experience with medium-sized reactors but sadly we're faced with the same political/stability problems as with Russia. China builds infrastructure then uses it as leverage to blackmail the country.

South Korea has an excellent experience. They recently built 4 reactors in UAE, model APR-1400. What's really impressive is that they completed it on time and within the budget. These are massive 1,400 MW reactors that cost $5bn. It's even a better result than what Russia delivers.

South Korea is also working on smaller reactors, which would be better suited for Armenia. South Koreans have a great track record in nuclear engineering.

[Armenian gov't recently said they'll send experts to study the South Korean experience.]

Full: https://youtu.be/fBxLHDpmcww

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Link to original report and comments: https://www.reddit.com/r/armenia/comments/14ggxsq/source_putin_wont_forgive_pashinyan_for_his/