2023 August 25

Daily news wrap-up

UN Security Council resolution: Analysts discuss France's efforts, involvement of U.S. and Russia || UN office on Genocide Prevention || Wagner Yevgeniy Prigozhin's jet lands in Azerbaijan; Baku's crime hub || Economic stats
by ar_david_hh

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Azerbaijan's refusal to follow World Court order on Lachin corridor warrants preventative measures: Report by Juan Mendez, former UN Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide

THE REPORT: The UN's Prevention of Genocide office was created as a message to the UN Security Council, in response to the weak reactions to the genocides in Srebrenica and Rwanda. There were structural problems that led to hesitation by the international community. The lack of early action by the international community, which was a result of a lack of early information and warning, was a major contributing factor to the genocidal crises.

In the current situation in Nagorno-Karabakh, I wish to point out the lack of compliance with the World Court's binding order as an indicator that requires an early warning.

The deliberate blockade of the Lachin corridor, against the binding order of the World Court, signals the high probability that Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh may in the near future suffer “serious bodily or mental harm”.

The excuses offered, the denial of the blockade, and the offer of alternative roads to eventually provide food, confirm Azerbaijan’s defiance of the World Court order.

On 9 Nov. 2020, Azerbaijan signed a trilateral statement ending the war. It established the 5 km wide Lachin corridor to ensure the communication between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia.

The World Court issued an order, then reaffirmed its order, for Azerbaijan to take all measures at its disposal to ensure unimpeded movement along the Lachin Corridor in both directions.

Instead of complying, Azerbaijani forces have sealed off any channel connecting Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia.

The World Court order put Azerbaijan on notice about the “real and imminent risk” created by the blockade to an Armenian group’s “health and life.”

Azerbaijan has ignored calls from the UN Secretary-General, the U.S. Secretary of State and the President of France to comply with the World Court binding order and open the Lachin corridor.

It is my considered opinion that the facts outlined above constitute sufficient reason to proffer an early warning to the international community that the population of Nagorno-Karabakh is at risk of suffering *“serious bodily or mental harm”.*

The state parties of the Genocide Convention are committed to preventing the crime, and the international community should exercise its responsibilities to protect that population.

I am guided in this conclusion by the jurisprudential precedent adopted by the World Court in *Bosnia v. Serbia* regarding the obligation to prevent genocide under the 1948 Convention.

[Full report here](https://un.mfa.am/file_manager/un_mission/Preliminary%20Opinion%20-%2023.08.2023.pdf).

Mendez joins the ranks of international legal experts who have raised the alarm on the humanitarian crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh caused by Azerbaijan's illegal blockade of the corridor.

Read [ex-PM Aram Sargsyan's recent interview](https://www.reddit.com/r/armenia/comments/15zhsb7/completely_false_us_denies_rumors_about_blocking/) for more context.

[source,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lEh5UzFG-x0)

U.S.-based Armenian group launches a hunger strike in support of Nagorno-Karabakh

The Pan Armenian Council of the Western USA demands Joe Biden to take steps to end the blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh.

U.S. House Rep. Adam Schiff, Brad Sherman, and others visited the group to show support.

[source,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lEh5UzFG-x0)

OSCE President's representative visits the Lachin corridor to prepare and send a report

Andrzej Kasprzyk visited the border between Armenia and the Lachin corridor to learn details about the situation. He saw the dozens of humanitarian trucks that cannot enter Nagorno-Karabakh because of Azerbaijan's illegal blockade.

... Azerbaijan refuses to accept OSCE's Andrzej Kasprzyk because of his fact-finding mission in Lachin

Kasprzyk was supposed to fly to Baku after Armenia. Azerbaijan referred to his visit as a "waste of time" and canceled it.

[source,](https://factor.am/680558.html) [source,](https://factor.am/680634.html)

France's Macron is increasing pressure on Azerbaijan

Context in [Thursday news](https://www.reddit.com/r/armenia/comments/160i38k/interview_with_expm_aram_sargsyan_others_france/). France is reportedly preparing a UN Security Council resolution on the blockade of Lachin.

French regional authorities will send a humanitarian convoy consisting of 10 trucks of essential goods to the Lachin corridor on August 30th. It'll be accompanied by the mayors of Paris (Anne Hidalgo) and Strasbourg (Jeanne Barseghian), and governors of states. They will request the French government to ensure the unobstructed passage of the cargo via the Lachin corridor. The French-Armenian group CCAF helped organize their visit.

PRESIDENT MACRON: We are exerting maximum efforts to restore humanitarian access to Nagorno-Karabakh. We deplore and condemn it, but now is not the time for diplomacy.

I would avoid using the term "genocide" hastily. We have an unacceptable humanitarian situation, especially as a result of the closure of the Lachin Corridor. France’s role is to press for humanitarian aid and we are doing everything we can to achieve this. In particular, we continue to take measures to ensure the delivery of food and medicine and to ensure free access to Nagorno-Karabakh.

We have consistently advocated for the sovereignty of peoples. The Nagorno-Karabakh issue is intricate, particularly concerning the equitable treatment of peoples. I am not inclined to align with hardline stances on this matter. Presently, our primary focus is on establishing enduring peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, while safeguarding the interests of various peoples and cultures. This peace accord is imperative, but it must conform to international law.

[source,](https://massispost.com/2023/08/macron-no-longer-time-for-diplomacy-france-must-sustain-pressure-for-humanitarian-access/) [source,](https://asbarez.com/time-for-diplomacy-is-over-macron-says-france-must-maintain-pressure-to-address-artsakh-humanitarian-crisis/) [source,](https://hetq.am/hy/article/159406)

PM Pashinyan hosted the French ambassador

They spoke about the Lachin corridor, AM-FR relations, and the involvement of French companies in the Armenian market.

[source,](https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/267439)

interview with analyst Stepan Grigoryan || UNSC resolution, France, U.S.

REPORTER: Macron said it's not time for diplomacy anymore. What did he mean?

GRIGORYAN: Work was underway behind closed doors after the UNSC's public session. Armenia was able to find an ally to agree to prepare a resolution or a statement that could be approved by the majority of UNSC members. Unsurprisingly, that ally is France. They have drafted a resolution and will discuss it with other UNSC members.

Macron hinted that some kind of force could be used to defend the rights of Armenians. This is a response to Azerbaijan's audacious behavior. The UNSC will not need to ask the OSCE or others for "approval".

A certain country could also decide to provide assistance after a bilateral agreement with Armenia. See [EU's border monitoring mission in Armenia](https://euobserver.com/world/157339). Had they discussed it within the OSCE, Turkey and Azerbaijan would have vetoed it, but the EU made that decision within themselves.

Sometime next week France will send a humanitarian cargo to the Lachin corridor and demand Azerbaijan to allow it through. This isn't going to be Armenian or Red Cross aid. France wants to personally ramp up the pressure on Azerbaijan.

REPORTER: How far could this go? What force could France apply?

GRIGORYAN: France will bring the cargo while simultaneously holding UNSC discussions around the resolution. The content of that resolution will be influenced by the fate of the humanitarian cargo.

France will propose sanctions against Azerbaijan. They want to send a monitoring group. I haven't heard of any talks about deploying peacekeepers for now. Of course France wants to consult with the U.S. and UK first.

If Aliyev refuses to open the corridor, the response will be a resolution, not a statement. I won't rule out that *someone* might veto it, but this won't stop France and the U.S. from taking certain steps.

REPORTER: Macron refrains from using the term "genocide" for now.

GRIGORYAN: He is right. We have to use the correct terminology. So far, the situation resembles an "ethnocide". That means there are attempts to deprive an ethnic group of its homeland, heritage, etc. Ethnocide also warrants immediate action to prevent or stop it.

REPORTER: There were rumors that the U.S. was convincing France not to draft a resolution.

GRIGORYAN: Remember the fake news about the UK blocking a resolution last year? I think Armenians were expecting something similar this year. Sadly many people bought it. The U.S. isn't blocking the resolution. They are ready to discuss it when it's drafted. There is no hard time limit on when the resolution can be approved.

Armenia has definitely secured 9+ votes, but one permanent member [presumably Russia] could veto it.

REPORTER: Russia's Lavrov has circulated a 14-point plan to integrate Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians into Azerbaijan. It's not "official" yet but Moscow hasn't denied the authenticity of the document. Why is Russia doing this to Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians?

GRIGORYAN: I learned about that document a while ago but chose to remain silent until there was a "confirmation". The confirmation was delivered by the Russian representative during the UNSC session. He confirmed the plan's authenticity.

Its main point is that Armenians can stay in Nagorno-Karabakh, but they must live under Azerbaijani rule, despite the fact that Azerbaijani laws do not even sufficiently protect Azeris living in Azerbaijan. There are killings, political retaliations, and repressions in Azerbaijan. How could Azerbaijan use its laws to protect ethnic Armenians? I welcome NK-AZ dialogue, as long as it's under an international platform with international regulations.

REPORTER: What language will the UNSC resolution use?

GRIGORYAN: Armenia did not want the resolution to contain "political" language or sentences about "genocide" because this would have prompted some members to vote against it. Instead, the resolution will demand the unblocking of the Lachin corridor and the condemnation of Azerbaijan's blockade of the corridor.

REPORTER: Tell us about the government in Nagorno-Karabakh.

GRIGORYAN: They used to make staunchly pro-Russian statements but that has thankfully changed. The government of Nagorno-Karabakh recently approved the Western offer to hold negotiations with Azerbaijan in Slovakia. It was Azerbaijan who rejected it.

The governments of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh have been working a lot more synchronously lately, and Nagorno-Karabakh is gradually starting to act as an independent subject. This is great news. We need Nagorno-Karabakh to enter the game as a subject.

[source,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B3mw_LuMVUE?t=9)

interview with legal expert Ara Ghazaryan || UNSC resolution

GHAZARYAN: The approval of a resolution by the UNSC could take months or years. What's important is that Armenia was able to "catch" the UNSC. I believe there will be attempts to approve multiple resolutions throughout the years.

The news that a resolution is being drafted is not surprising, we were confident there would be one, considering the seriousness of the humanitarian situation. But we must treat this as a long-term process.

REPORTER: Would a pro-Armenian resolution actually help us, considering the adoption of 4 pro-Azeri resolutions that were adopted after the 1994 war but didn't do much for Azerbaijan?

GHAZARYAN: Those 4 resolutions helped Azerbaijan immensely. For 25-30 years they used the resolutions to build a narrative and scored victories in international institutions, one step at a time. It helped change the opinion of the international community.

[source,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ub8p5oxWIs)

interview with analyst Karen Sargsyan || UN General Assembly vs. Security Council || Wagner's jet in Azerbaijan

SARGSYAN: Russia could try, once again, to sabotage the resolution by proposing unacceptable modifications at the last moment. If they veto it, we must escalate this to the UN General Assembly, which is allowed to overrule a permanent member's veto. Here, Russia's influence and Azerbaijan's caviar money might not be enough to buy the majority.

REPORTER: How do we escalate it to the General Assembly?

SARGSYAN: There is a diplomatic procedure. We should not underestimate or overestimate the UN.

REPORTER: Why?

SARGSYAN: The Turkish-controlled Cyprus recently attacked the UN peacekeepers who attempted to block the construction of an illegal road.

Aliyev is going *va banque*. But the only people who are under the impression that Aliyev is a powerful figure are the residents of a few Absheron villages, and Armenians. Aliyev is facing major issues, including with European institutions, and even with the UK because his policies are against UK's economic development vision. Aliyev's militaristic approach is too anti-commercial for the UK, which has become more sensitive to this topic after Brexit.

REPORTER: Why did the second jet owned by Yevgeniy Prigozhin land in Azerbaijan after the downing of the jet carrying Prigozhin? *[Opposition Russian press believes the jet that landed in Azerbaijan was carrying Prigozhin's family members. Unofficial.]*

SARGSYAN: Wagner has an extensive criminal record. Azerbaijan is a known crime hub, a hub for narco-traffickers and terrorists. A few years back there was a report about an al-Qaeda cell located in Azerbaijan that was coordinating terrorist attacks. Generally, territories controlled by dictators tend to be a magnet for crime.

REPORTER: Does Wagner have business ties to Azerbaijan?

SARGSYAN: During the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, Yevgeniy Prigozhin stated that it was Azerbaijan's right to attack Nagorno-Karabakh, but attacking Armenia proper would be unacceptable and would have consequences.

It was a strange statement because he wasn't a "public figure" at the time. Wagner was already famous, but it was still in the "open secret" phase. There were just a few photos showing what Prigozhin looked like. The media was rotating the same photos. That was the revelation of Prigozhin.

[source,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A3UkF06s2ok)

Armenia's economy in the first 7 months of 2023

Economic activity index +10.4%

Consumer price index +3.6%

Mining and manufacturing +0.5%

Construction +17%

Trade turnover +23%

Services +15%

Electricity production -3.5%

Foreign trade +63%

[source,](https://arka.am/en/news/business/seven_month_economic_activity_in_armenia_up_10_4_year_on_year/) [source,](https://www.1lurer.am/en/2023/08/25/Indicator-of-economic-activity-in-Armenia-increased-by-104-percent-in-January-July-compared-to-same/984036)

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Link to original report and comments: https://www.reddit.com/r/armenia/comments/161irnn/un_security_council_resolution_analysts_discuss/