2023 August 21

Daily news wrap-up

Interview with analyst Richard Giragosian: Internal instability in Azerbaijan; Nagorno-Karabakh blockade; Turkey || Armenia is building a major ski resort || Yerevan's will have new subway wagons and electric buses || Airlines accredited
by ar_david_hh

6 minutes.

residents of Nagorno-Karabakh capital Stepanakert are forced to collect water with buckets: PHOTOS

Azerbaijan has shut down the delivery of electricity and gas to Nagorno-Karabakh, in addition to food supplies, making it impossible for some critical utility companies to function. Giant water buckets were installed in several districts of the capital. The garbage collection was suspended earlier this month.

[source,](https://hetq.am/hy/article/159240)

interview with international analyst Richard Giragosian

REPORTER: Why is the U.S. delaying the approval of military aid to Azerbaijan?

GIRAGOSIAN: I was part of the team working on the law to ban military aid to Azerbaijan in the 1990s. It was drafted in response to Azerbaijan's aggression and the blockade of Armenia. Today we're witnessing another aggression, and this time the blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh.

The ban was later weakened, allowing the U.S. presidents to bypass it. This year, however, the U.S. president isn't eager to bypass the ban. It's usually approved in June. Now it's August. There are three possible factors:

(1) The U.S. doesn't have a lot of leverage over Azerbaijan. The suspension of military aid is a rare example.

(2) Azerbaijan is no longer as important for the U.S. military after its withdrawal from Afghanistan. This also deprives Azerbaijan of Pentagon's support in Washington.

(3) The most interesting factor. The U.S. is disappointed at Azerbaijan over the lack of diplomatic progress during the latest negotiations between AM-AZ foreign ministers in Washington. The U.S. was expecting more from Azerbaijan.

These aren't enough to sway Azerbaijan, however.

REPORTER: Almost all UN Security Council states have acknowledged the humanitarian crisis caused by the blockade of the Lachin corridor. Calls were made for Azerbaijan or both sides to ensure free movement in and out of the region. Critics say the Western calls are pointless because they are being ignored by Azerbaijan. What was the benefit of the UNSC session?

GIRAGOSIAN: The UNSC session was very important, but not for the reasons you may think. This was a move by Armenia to initiate the gradual diplomatic isolation of Azerbaijan. This changes the dynamic. For the first time, Azerbaijan has found itself defending against Armenia's diplomatic initiative. This is very important, but still insufficient, so I have two suggestions for the Armenian government:

(1) The threat of withdrawing from the peace negotiations could be very effective for Armenia. The negotiations are set to resume in September. Perhaps Armenia could withdraw from it unless Azerbaijan lifts the blockade.

(2) Study the U.S. history during the Cold War. The U.S. faced an 11-month-long blockade of Berlin. In the end, the West opened an air corridor. This is an important precedence.

REPORTER: During the UNSC session, Russia defended the position of Turkey and Azerbaijan. The statements made by these three countries were quite similar. It is obvious now that Russia has sold out its former ally Armenia. On the other hand, we saw the emergence of new diplomatic allies in the West.

GIRAGOSIAN: There are some disagreements within the RU-TR-AZ alliance. The RU-TR ties have weakened since the re-election of Erdogan. Azerbaijan has chosen a very risky path by publicly humiliating Russia. Kremlin has a long memory and won't forget or forgive this. Today, Russia's primary goal is to save its face. Russia supports the Aghdam road because they have been humiliated and incapable of enforcing the Nov. 9 agreement. Russia, Turkey, and Azerbaijan act from positions of insecurity, not confidence. At the same time, Armenia is building bridges to India and China. Also, Armenia has successfully avoided becoming an area of confrontation between the West and Russia.

REPORTER: Describe the AM-US relations. Is it getting stronger?

GIRAGOSIAN: What we are seeing is a change in policy by the U.S., not Armenia. The Biden administration wants to strengthen Armenia and the strategic role of democratic Armenia. The U.S. is no longer trying to *promote* democracy, it is trying to *defend* democracy. The U.S. ambassador has once again visited Syunik and Vayots Dzor and made a statement. But it would be a mistake for Armenia to overestimate the importance of the U.S. The EU likely plays a more important role here.

REPORTER: Will there be another major war soon?

GIRAGOSIAN: Today we have a Game of Thrones-esque medieval siege of Nagorno-Karabakh. There is a manmade crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh caused by Azerbaijan, targeting the peaceful population. This is about the peace negotiations between AM-AZ. The most concerning part is not the peace agreement or the negotiation process, but the enforcement of the peace agreement. Are there guarantees that Azerbaijan won't break the agreement? Because it is beneficial for the Aliyev regime to continuously have an external enemy.

REPORTER: Is Armenia doing enough to strengthen its army by acquiring modern weapons and drones?

GIRAGOSIAN: Not enough. Armenia is still too weak to match the Turkey-backed Azerbaijan. Armenia should prioritize quality over quantity, professionalism and modernization over the acquisition of the cheapest weapons from unreliable Russia. The Armenian government's decision to sign a large arms deal with India was great news.

What concerns me is the murder incidents within the army and the poor quality of relations between the soldiers. This problem, inherited from the previous governments, is still present. There is a lack of discipline in the army. A generational investment is necessary to improve military education and preparedness.

The future is on Armenia's side, not Azerbaijan's. But real results will require several years of hard work.

REPORTER: In response to your statement that the Aliyev regime will always need an external enemy. The political situation in Azerbaijan is not improving, and human rights are being viciously violated. This has led to the emergence of more and more Azeri activists who aren't afraid of speaking up. Some are even critical of Aliyev's militaristic policies and lack of true desire to establish peace with Armenia. Could this lead to a change in Azerbaijan's foreign policy?

GIRAGOSIAN: Changes within Azerbaijan are inevitable, but most of them could be negative for Armenia. We see that Azerbaijan is not satisfied with its 2020 victory. It was dangerously unsatisfactory for them.

As for the Aliyev regime, Aliyev has adopted a nationalist stance and lies between the competing pro-Russian and pro-Turkish factions. For now, this is being successfully used as a distraction from the government's corruption and the lack of democracy, but this cannot last forever.

We witnessed the beginning of the tipping point a few weeks ago, with the arrests of several pro-Aliyev figures, civil society activists, former peace activists, and former moderates. Aliyev's regime is now turning against its own people even in the conditions of the confidence brought by the victory.

Azerbaijan could plunge into a period of internal unrest and weakness. There is a 1990s precedence. There is the presence of a Turkey-backed defense minister with dangerous ambitions.

Azerbaijan will implode. It is a matter of "when". Armenia, the West, and Russia must analyze the consequences of the inevitable instability in Azerbaijan.

REPORTER: Armenia is attempting to normalize relations with Turkey but the latter refuses, and demands the normalization of AM-AZ relations as a precondition. What are the prospects?

GIRAGOSIAN: Turkey has made it clear that it cannot make any move that would harm its relations with Azerbaijan. But Turkey is very dissatisfied with its own weakness towards dominant Azerbaijan. Today, Azerbaijan is the #1 foreign direct investor in Turkey. Azerbaijan has leverage during the economic hardship in Turkey.

Turkey is concerned over the possibility of an AZ-RU conflict in the region.

Armenia has become more important for Turkey after the latest elections in Turkey, because Russia has essentially excluded Turkey from trade and transport restoration projects. Regulating relations with Armenia is the only way for Turkey to restore its regional role in the economy and trade.

Turkey is not as strong as before. The developments with Greece and Cyprus indicate that this is the era of Turkey's aging, weaker leadership. Turkey is more vulnerable today. Turkey's military aid to Azerbaijan is also not at the same level as before, and Aliyev turns to his friend Netanyahu more often these days. There is more friction that's below the surface.

[source,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C6vQVp7V558?t=2060) [source,](https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32556715.html)

artificial snow will be used for Armenia's new ski resort

[Last year we learned](https://www.reddit.com/r/armenia/comments/tgibhu/mar172022_new_armenian_ski_resort_to_compete_with/) about plans to build a new ski/leisure resort in Armenia that will compete against Georgian and Russian counterparts.

According to Economy Minister Kerobyan, 28 km of ski tracks have already been laid. The second branch of the gondola elevator is under construction. The artificial snow-making system, the first in Armenia, is being installed and will be operational this year. "The project will change the quality of life in nearby villages."

The MYLER company will invest $78m in the first stage. Hotels, golf courses, a casino, restaurants, and other infrastructure will be built later.

The resort aims to attract 500,000 tourists from Russia, Iran, and Europe.

[source,](https://arka.am/en/news/tourism/twenty_eight_km_of_ski_tracks_laid_at_myler_ski_resort/)

Armenian national airlines Fly Arna has received a safety certificate from international IOSA

Fly Arna has passed the audit and is the only Armenian carrier to attain this internationally recognized safety accreditation in Armenia.

Fly Arna: It underlines our commitment to adopting the world's top aviation safety standards. This achievement is a testament to our continuous dedication to ensuring the safety and well-being of our passengers and crew

[source,](https://arka.am/en/news/business/fly_arna_has_successfully_received_iosa_certificate/)

Yerevan will purchase 250 electric buses

The capital will negotiate with the EBRD bank to acquire 250 electric buses to replace the 250 aging Chinese "Higer" buses.

[source,](https://arka.am/en/news/society/yerevan_intends_to_purchase_250_electric_buses_with_ebrd_funding_/)

Yerevan will have new subway wagons

All the operating trains of the Metro need replacement as they were manufactured in 1976.

Metro stats: 13.4 km tracks, 10 stations, 414,000 passengers last week, չխկլ-չխկլ will make you fall asleep better than the multi-billion dollar pharma industry.

[source,](https://arka.am/en/news/society/yerevan_metro_to_replace_45_outdated_trains_/)