2023 October 30

Daily news wrap-up

by ar_david_hh

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Welcome to the Oct/30/2023 edition of Daily Transcaucasia. This is a 9-minute read. Կարդա որ Լենին պապին չպատժի․

PM Pashinyan about a peace agreement with Azerbaijan, relations with Turkey, and the unblocking of roads:

Pashinyan visited the parliament to discuss the 2024 budget. He began the speech with calls to strengthen Armenia's sovereignty and independence, adding that strengthening state institutions is an act of patriotism. *"The state is your homeland. Do you love your homeland? Then strengthen the state."* Pashinyan said it's necessary to protect Armenia's 29,800 km^2, to equate the "state" to "homeland", and to have normal relations with all neighbors.

Pashinyan said that the main 3 principles necessary for the normalization of AM-AZ relations are present and that a peace agreement is within reach if Azerbaijan respects the agreements reached in Europe: (1) Mutual recognition of territorial integrity on specific km^2, (2) Delimitation of borders based on Almaty Declaration. "Armenia and Azerbaijan already possess the necessary maps and we can move forward if there is political will." *[Russia goodbye?]*. (3) Unblock the communication routes without violating the sovereignty of states.

Pashinyan says Armenia and Azerbaijan should each install border checkpoints on their side of the border and guarantee the safety of traffic passing through their territories. The government is in the process of forming a new special unit within the NSS (National Security Service) tasked with the protection of international communication routes passing through Armenia. The newly established Patrol Police will also help protect the traffic.

Special envoys of Armenia and Turkey had earlier reached an agreement to open the AM-TR border to citizens of third states and diplomats. Pashinyan hopes that this agreement will be implemented soon, noting that Armenia recently renovated the Margara infrastructure connecting to Turkey.

Pashinyan about the economy:

We expect at least 7% economic growth for 2023. The inflation has been stable so far: +2.8%.

In September we had a new record number of registered jobs: 726,056. That's +178,067 compared to May 2018.

In 2023, for the first time in history, the minimum pension matched the minimum food basket. The minimum pension +125% vs 2018 (more than double).

2024 planned budget revenues are over 2x the 2018 planned budget revenues.

Pashinyan about education budget:

Education budget for 2024: +130% vs 2018, +39% vs 2023. It will be ֏289B [$722 million]. That's 2.8% of GDP (+0.6%).

We have made amendments to the new program that raises teachers' salaries if they pass an attestation/certification process. Initially, only those who scored >69% qualified for a raise. Their base salary would first increase from ֏125K to ֏200K, followed by an additional % raise (up to 50%), the size of which depends on how high they scored.

Teachers scoring 60%-69% did not qualify for any raise: it was a "pass" score. After the amendment, their base salary will also rise from ֏125K to ֏200K but they won't receive an additional % bonus. This will be applied retroactively. If you've already scored >60%, you will get a raise.

We have a plan to build or renovate 300 schools and 500 kindergartens:

2023 budget: $97 million

2024 budget: $279 million

Our concern is we might not be able to find enough construction firms. Almost every construction company in Armenia is either busy or overloaded. Forget about the company being owned by a friend of this or that official. We need every company we can find. Everyone's friend and family, regardless of whether they are from the ruling or opposition party, is almost guaranteed to win a construction tender. We are the ones pursuing them to take part in auctions for the construction of roads, schools, bridges, etc.

Relevant agencies have been tasked with contacting foreign companies to encourage their participation. To make the job more financially attractive for foreign companies, we want to separate the projects geographically and grant licenses in a way for a single foreign company to be able to build multiple schools or roads.

The foundation of the [Academic City](https://www.reddit.com/r/armenia/comments/17bqz1j/academic_city_gets_a_boost_new_details_new/) has entered the implementation phase. We have selected a German company to design the plan in cooperation with Armenian architects.

Pashinyan about healthcare budget and the establishment of "universal healthcare" in Armenia:

The healthcare budget has doubled since 2018:

2018: ֏84B

2024: 2018 + ֏87B

In 2024 we will begin the implementation of the new healthcare system. This is a very important event. It should become one of the most important institutional reforms in Armenia. We have held numerous discussions with various parties in preparation. A reform like this requires a very strong political will. My cabinet has that. We will present the plan to parliament. Hopefully, the plan will move forward.

Pashinyan about capital expenditures in 2024:

Capital expenditures: +310% vs 2018; 23% vs 2023 (over ֏695B in 2024; 6.6% of GDP; some 40% of capital expenditures will be aimed at defense)

We plan to have >500 km of new or renovated roads in 2024.

There is major progress in the construction of the North-South road. An [agreement was recently signed](https://www.reddit.com/r/armenia/comments/17eut0h/northsouth_trade_route_via_syunik_agreement/) to build the Agarak-Kajaran section in Syunik.

The Sisian-Kajaran section is giving us some problems. There were some misunderstandings with our foreign partners, causing delays in the tender process. Negotiations continue with the company. We hope they will release a statement soon on their decision to launch the project.

Pashinyan cabinet about defense budget:

2024 defense budget: +125% vs 2018 (over double), +7% vs 2023.

In 2024 it will be ֏555B [almost $1.4 billion]. That's 5.3% of GDP.

We have also created a new foreign intel agency, which is still being developed, to help protect Armenia from external threats.

To establish the Patrol Police, we allocated ֏20B, the U.S. gave ֏6B, and the EU gave ֏3B. Russia will help us with the Water Patrol in Lake Sevan by donating motorboats. This was the single largest investment in police in Armenia's modern history.

Finance Ministry's predictions for 2024:

Copper prices -1.9% (was -5.4% in 2023)

Oil prices will decrease

Food prices -2.8%

We will export less

We will receive fewer remittances

We will host more tourists: 2,570,000

We want the economy to grow by 7%

=="real" exports slightly decreased in 2023

Total exports +48%

Re-exports to Russia: +3x

Exports of goods made in Armenia: -0.8%

Finance Minister about unemployment:

Unemployment has reached a record low: 11.7%

However, our foreign partners are expected to have economic difficulties. We must take steps to reduce the negative impact on our economy and to take advantage of new opportunities.

Number of workers in 2023: +5.5%

Number of workers in 2024: +2.7% (expected)

Real wages in 2023: +13.6%

Real wages in 2024: +8.8% (expected)

[source,](https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/272474) [full video,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7AlSAR_D5f8) [source,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mbPU0uOlr_Q) [source,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A34g_q_sGlc) [source,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ylISNpFE2Q) [source,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kyw9SPfKpGk)

Armenia has sent 10 experts to Cambridge to study cryptocurrencies and blockchain

The emperor of the Central Bank says the move was necessary because Armenia must have experts in this area to explore opportunities and manage risks.

[source,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AFlbcmjS1WM)

Armenia's Police Forces will be demilitarized and converted into Police Guard

The Police Guard will protect public peace and security, government and important buildings, accompany foreign diplomats, etc. They will be equipped with new types of weapons per international standards. The staff will be retrained. The bill will be discussed in parliament soon.

[source,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fOkwdbQQdYo)

crime rose double-digit because of drug busts and a new reporting methodology

Overall crime is up by 12% this year so far.

Out of the additional 3.2K crime incidents: 2.3K drug-related, 0.3K weapons circulation, 0.3K bribery busts.

Authorities allocated more resources to fight drugs in 2023.

Under the newly amended crime code, sudden deaths are initially filed under the "possible murder" category, which has skewed the statistics. The growth in this category is 0.6K.

[source,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZpkLxPJMy5k)

ruling party MP wants parents to pay more attention to their teenage sons and use over-the-counter instant drug tests to prevent them from going down the rabbit hole

MP ALEXANYAN: I've been informed about a shortage of OTC drug tests in pharmacies. These allow you to check for drugs at home. The Interior Ministry should encourage parents to buy such tests and check their sons regularly to ensure everything is alright in their lives. It's better to prevent because once the teenager becomes an addict your Ministry won't be capable of dealing with it anymore.

KOCHARYAN ANDRANIK, ruling MP: Unannounced tests are quite popular abroad, especially in the army and defense sector. Let's all get tested at a random date without our knowledge. Don't we want to know whether officers who arrest drug users are themselves drug users or not? Testing the members of authority who combat drugs would establish a more restrained atmosphere. We saw a very troubling picture caused by drugs during the army draft. Hopefully human rights organizations won't object to widespread tests.

INTERIOR MINISTER: No objections from us. We already have a mandatory drug test for attestation applicants. There have been 2 disqualifications so far.

[source,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoQEtFwD5-g)

Azerbaijan filed a lawsuit against Armenia in the ~~ICC~~ ICJ (?) regarding the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

Armenia is also preparing a case against Azerbaijan. Any verdict is expected to take several years.

[source,](https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/272515)

an opposition figure from Nagorno-Karabakh disputes some of the claims made by Nagorno-Karabakh President Shahramanyan

Read [Saturday report](https://www.reddit.com/r/armenia/comments/17iqjnv/october_28_newsmews/) for Shahramanyan's interview.

REPORTER: [Nagorno-Karabakh opposition leader] Samvel Babayan says it was possible to avoid the bloodshed. He was separately negotiating with Azerbaijan. Moreover, [another opposition figure] Hayk Khanumyan says Babayan had offered you his services as a mediator on the first day of the war.

SHAHRAMANYAN: Khanumyan called me on September 19 and informed me that Babayan was ready to assume leadership and launch negotiations with Azerbaijan to stop the war. I asked Babayan to present his plans for our consideration. He refused to share it with us. //

Khanumyan says Shahramanyan was never serious about hearing out Babayan and considering his services as a negotiator.

KHANUMYAN: On that day, Shahramanyan said he would meet Babayan but never did so. He said he decided to use Russian mediation to hold talks in Yevlakh. The following morning, while we were still at war, Shahramanyan summoned a National Security Council meeting. They invited everyone except Babayan - the leader of the largest opposition faction. They made the decisions during that NatSec meeting.

REPORTER: Shahramanyan says he asked Azerbaijan if sending Babayan would make any difference and received a negative response.

KHANUMYAN: What else can I say about a leader who has to ask for Azerbaijan's permission to decide who his negotiator should be? Shahramanyan was woefully underqualified for this job. Who was Shahramanyan? Why did a group of ex-leaders push his candidacy? Shahramanyan claims he assumed the role because no one else was ready to take the responsibility. This is false. Babayan had been campaigning in provinces since December 2022 and urging the president to appoint him as the State Minister, and later offered to become the leader and assume the responsibility. Babayan's initial proposals *(installation of weapons scanner in Lachin, jointly operating the mine with Azerbaijan)*, which were promptly ignored and deemed as treacherous, later became the desired goals. This was before the Lachin blockade when the conflicts began around the mine and on the road to Shushi. After the Lachin blockade and Azerbaijan's insistence on opening the Agdam road, Babayan proposed the creation of a market [with food safety labs] on the Askeran-Azerbaijan border to conduct trade via the Agdam road in exchange for opening Lachin. Nothing was done by the weak government to implement these middle-ground solutions. They were only responding to Azerbaijan's actions instead of taking proactive steps suggested by Babayan to have a more favorable outcome. //

[source,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hKtXR97Wgxw)

British press: Armenia is launching a charm offensive in London to attract UK investment, intends to raise trade turnover to £1 billion

Economy Minister Kerobyan, a former HSBC banker, has visited London to meet banks *"as [Armenia] looks to pivot away from Russia".*

>Armenia is looking to boost its connections with Western financial centres and shift its geopolitical alignment following war in Ukraine.

UK-AM trade is growing rapidly: +156% YoY. It's only £0.09b right now. Armenia wants to raise it to £1b within the next three years.

The delegation has already met HSBC and also arranged a meeting with US banking giant JP Morgan.

KEROBYAN: We really need to diversify our economic ties. //

Armenia is looking to regain the tech crown it had during the USSR, writes the British press. Nvidia, Oracle, and Cisco have a presence in Armenia. Armenia has lots of copper, a key for electrification and renewable energy.

[original source,](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-12681139/Armenia-launching-charm-offensive-City-attract-UK-investment.html) [source,](https://arka.am/en/news/economy/daily_mail_armenia_intends_to_raise_trade_turnover_with_great_britain_up_to_1_billion_pounds/)

Russian military blogger WarGonzo gets fact-checked after claiming that Russia is protecting the Armenia-Azerbaijan border

Pashinyan to Wall Street Journal: I don't see any benefits of having the Russian military base in Armenia amid Russia's inaction to Azerbaijan's invasion of Armenia since 2021.

WarGonzo: Russian soldiers are helping Armenia protect its eastern borders with Azerbaijan. They are deployed alongside Armenian soldiers.

FIP fact-checker: [shares satellite images showing the location of Armenian, Russian, and Azeri outposts] Russian forces are located in the rear. They have never engaged with Azeri soldiers during clashes. Only Armenia is protecting the eastern borders with Azerbaijan.

[source,](https://fip.am/23703)

Armenia's pro-Western National Security chief held a meeting with the chief of staff of Vladimir Zelensky

Armen Grigoryan and Andrey Yermak met in Malta to discuss AM-UA relations. They emphasized the importance of the brief exchange Pashinyan and Zelensky had during their first-ever meeting in Granada earlier this month.

Yermak thanked Armenia for sending First Lady Anna Hakobyan to take part in the humanitarian summit held in Kyiv, and for providing humanitarian assistance to Ukrainian students.

Yermak said Ukraine is committed to strengthening cooperation with Armenia, in particular in matters of Euro-integration.

Armen Grigoryan also met the representatives of the U.S. and France to discuss Nagorno-Karabakh and AM-AZ relations.

[source,](https://factor.am/705835.html)

these are the countries that send the most tourists to Georgia

(1) Russia: 1,140,000

(2) Turkey: 1,080,000

(3) Armenia: 736,000

Azerbaijan gets a participation trophy with 147,000.

[source,](https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/272508)

Շնորհակալություն։ Լենին պապին չի պատժի։

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Link to original report and comments: https://www.reddit.com/r/armenia/comments/17k41oi/how_different_is_the_2024_budget_from_2023_and/