2023 October 11

Daily news wrap-up

Meghri railway: pros & cons; Customs enforcement; Impact on mining \\\ Treason vs. reason: Nagorno-Karabakh official reveals new details \\\ France wants a UNSC resolution \\\ Russia & Azerbaijan strengthen ties \\\ Survey in Azerbaijan: Peace or war? \\\ Interview with ex-PM Aram Sargsyan
by ar_david_hh

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France will attempt to pass a UN Security Council resolution to create conditions for the safe return of Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians

FRANCE: Azerbaijan is responsible for the exodus of 100,000 Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh. This serious crime cannot go unanswered.

[article,](https://factor.am/699478.html)

Russia-Azerbaijan alliance reaches new heights

Russia's NatSec Nikolai Patrushev visited Azerbaijan to meet President Aliyev. They discussed the results of the RU-AZ agreement on the strategic alliance that was signed days before Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

PATRUSHEV: Greetings and best wishes from President Putin. The ties between our states have expanded even more after the signing of the RU-AZ agreement. //

ALIYEV: The activities proceeding the signing of the RU-AZ strategic alliance have shown that our bilateral relations are truly allied. This is manifested in all spheres. //

The two discussed regional issues and topics relating to the North-South trade route passing through Iran, Azerbaijan, and Russia.

Russia and Azerbaijan signed a new agreement to cooperate in the area of information security. They discussed areas of cooperation between their intel agencies.

... president of Azerbaijan praises Russia, criticizes the West

• (Context: Armenian prime minister Pashinyan has rejected the Russian-backed negotiations in Bishkek, days after Azerbaijan rejected the Western negotiations in Granada. Azerbaijan is against France's participation.)*

ALIYEV: If Armenia rejects the Russian mediation, an alternative could be direct negotiations between AM-AZ. Azerbaijan will analyze the expediency of [Western] platforms while taking into account their attitude [towards Azerbaijan]. We gratefully accept the mediation offered by Russia, who is an ally of both countries, unlike [Western states] that are located thousands of kilometers away. Unfortunately, Armenia rejected this [Russian] meeting [in Bishkek]. Pashinyan can spend 6 hours to fly to Granada, but doesn't have 3 hours for Bishkek?

... Azerbaijan wants to join the newly proposed Turkey-Russia gas hub that allows Russia to bypass Western sanctions

Russia and Turkey want to build a new gas hub in Turkey and sell Russian gas to European countries. Azerbaijan wants to join the project, said Putin today.

[article,](https://factor.am/699122.html) [article,](https://factor.am/699176.html) [article,](https://factor.am/699307.html) [article,](https://factor.am/699365.html)

October survey in Azerbaijan: do you support a peace agreement with Armenia?

Yes: 81%

No: 18%

Men: 85% yes

Women: 77% yes

• Survey by Center for Social Research.*

[article,](https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/271193)

Nagorno-Karabakh politician Hayk Khanumyan discloses details about Russian FSB's ties with Nagorno-Karabakh leaders before the coup

Context: Nagorno-Karabakh opposition leader Samvel Babayan had earlier revealed that Russian special services FSB had a "5th Department" tasked with instructing Nagorno-Karabakh's pro-Russian leaders and ex-leaders. Babayan said Nagorno-Karabakh leaders had received reassurances from Russia that Azerbaijan would not attack, so they felt safe to maintain their "maximalist" position (nothing less than full independence, equal party during negotiations). Another opposition figure, Hayk Khanumyan, has revealed more details.

REPORTER: Self-critique: Did Nagorno-Karabakh fall because of our mistakes? Or was it exclusively because of external factors?

KHANUMYAN: Both. Our elites weren't fit to manage the state. They lacked a strategic mentality. They couldn't plan anything whatsoever. This led to the collapse of state management.

There was also a problem with political infantilism.

REPORTER: Explain what that means.

KHANUMYAN: Shortly before the resignation of President Arayik, when it became clear who his successor was going to be, I met Arayik and the parliament MPs to convince them not to vote for Shahramanyan as the new president. I advised them to take a different direction.

They said Russia had given them reassurances that the road would open after the appointment of Shahramanyan. I asked them if they actually spoke with someone from within the Kremlin. They said no. I said then how do they know Russia would help? They gave me a name of a person, which I will not disclose right now. It turns out this person was in touch with a Karabakhi businessman who owns a restaurant in Russia. Russian FSB generals frequently visit this restaurant for "talks". They gave the reassurances.

REPORTER: Is this real?

KHANUMYAN: Yes. That is their explanation of how they received the reassurances. This is the level of infantilism and their contact with Moscow. These are the people who then convinced the population that Russia was going to protect them.

Back when I was still a minister [1-2 years ago], President Arayik held several direct meetings with Azerbaijani representatives [in a settlement located in Nagorno-Karabakh]. During one of these meetings with the head of Azerbaijan's special services Ali Nagiyev, the latter conveyed Aliyev's message to Arayik: Do not rely on Putin, Macron, or Biden, none of them can resolve the conflict, let's sit down and resolve this together.

REPORTER: What impact did the coup have on subsequent developments?

KHANUMYAN: Azerbaijan did not want to negotiate with anyone who was an "agent" of Russia or another state. They viewed the [ex-regime in Nagorno-Karabakh who came to power] as Russian agents.

On September 8, on the eve of appointing Shahramanyan as the new president, the regime summoned Samvel Babayan for talks. Babayan later shared the details of their meeting with me. The regime told Babayan that they had received an ultimatum from Azerbaijan, that Azerbaijan would attack if Stepanakert proceeded with Shahramanyan's appointment. Babayan wasn't the only person present at the meeting. Many other officials knew about Azerbaijan's ultimatum.

The regime said they would assume full responsibility and proceeded with Shahramanyan's appointment. They were confident they had Russia's backing. They asked Babayan not to organize street protests.

On September 19 I called President Shahramanyan and urged him to allow Samvel Babayan to lead the negotiations with Azerbaijan, because they viewed Shahramanyan as a Russian agent.

REPORTER: Why didn't Russia help?

KHANUMYAN: Russia was weak even before the war in Ukraine. The latter made things worse. I saw this and decided to take steps during my tenure as a minister. We increased our fuel and other reserves. There were other officials like me who took steps urgently, sometimes by "bypassing" rules. This is what allowed us to have electricity during the winter.

But all these officials were fired. Everyone who spoke about the need to have new defense mechanisms was fired.

Officials who supported direct negotiations with Azerbaijan [bypassing Russia] to resolve local problems, were fired. They were replaced with "Facebook patriots" whose policies led to an escalation.

Samvel Babayan became active in February 2023. He proposed bold and courageous plans, something that only he could dare to attempt by using his firm background and popularity. For example, when Azerbaijan demanded the closure of the mine, Babayan offered to cooperate with Azerbaijan to run the mine jointly, sell all the output to Azerbaijan, and build a factory together.

REPORTER: That's "treason".

KHANUMYAN: It was called a "treason" at the time. Before the Lachin blockade, Babayan was also in support of installing a scanner on the Lachin corridor. It would be run by Russian peacekeepers, who would share the data with Azerbaijan [to verify Armenians weren't smuggling weapons]. That was also considered "treason" at the time. They didn't listen to Babayan, so 3 months later they were forced to deal with something much worse.

REPORTER: Who authorized Samvel Babayan to hold separate negotiations with Azerbaijan?

KHANUMYAN: President Arayik Harutyunyan. Babayan spoke about these negotiations during the August 28 parliament session. Prior to this, he was urging other parliamentary parties to jointly draft that document. When no one agreed, he did so by himself.

REPORTER: How were you able to cross the checkpoint to reach Armenia? Wasn't your name on the arrest list?

KHANUMYAN: Yes, but they didn't check the passports, just the content of vehicles and bags. My whole family was in the car. We crossed without an incident. I know several MPs whose passports were checked but they crossed without an incident [not necessarily on the arrest list]. The agents weren't checking everyone's passports. Leaving was easy.

[video,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qbidt0h61nE)

interview with ex-PM Aram Sargsyan || Meghri railway || Pashinyan's interview || Rome Statute || Vector-Shmector

Context: During [yesterday's interview](https://www.reddit.com/r/armenia/comments/174xilz/pashinyan_discloses_secrets_during_interview/), PM Pashinyan said Armenia hasn't officially withdrawn from any Russian-led organizations, and that Armenia's current pro-EU vector is a result of the CEPA agreement signed by Armenia's former leader, so technically Pashinyan himself hasn't "changed Armenia's vector".

REPORTER: Pashinyan's statement wasn't pro-Western enough according to pro-Western forces in Armenia. What's your take on that?

ARAM: Obviously Pashinyan should have answered "no" when asked whether he has changed Armenia's foreign vector. After all, Armenia has respected its allied obligations, whereas Russia did not. That is what Pashinyan said. Russia's refusal to carry out its duties is why Pashinyan and FM Mirzoyan canceled their trips to the Russian-led summit in Bishkek.

QUESTION: What about the ratification of the Rome Statute?

ARAM: No matter how much Pashinyan says the timing is a "coincidence", many in the West do not see it that way. The West views this as a step against Russia.

I consider the ratification of the Statute and Armenian leadership's refusal to attend the Bishkek summit as satisfactory steps towards the efforts of breaking free from Russia.

Armenia has 3 types of political forces: (1) Pro-Russian forces who want to strengthen ties with Russia to "solve" Armenia's problems. Sure, we could solve our problems by surrendering part of Syunik to Russia, having leaders handpicked by the Kremlin, and deploying CSTO troops who would always tell us that there are no incidents on the AM-AZ border. We would have a status lower than Belarus. (2) The pro-government forces. They are attempting to balance between Russia and the West. (3) Our wing. We are fully pro-Western. We believe the West is Armenia's real partner, not Russia.

REPORTER: About the unblocking of communication routes and Meghri railways.

ARAM: Armenia should sign a contract with a non-Russian company to operate railways through Meghri. Armenia should join this international trade route. Today Iran is competing against us. Iran wants this international link to pass through northern Iran instead of Armenia, so they can be the beneficiary of the transfer payments: $300 per vehicle. It also gives Iran leverage over Turkey and Azerbaijan.

Second. Armenia needs this railway link. Today our mining companies sell raw materials and concentrates. We don't have a copper smelter. We don't have one because operating one produces high amounts of sulfuric acid. The transfer of sulfuric acid over a vehicle road is prohibited, we must have a railway for that. The railway used to pass through Nakhijevan and Iran. We should restore this.

Today we transfer our copper concentrate to Iran with vehicles and dump it somewhere. Iranians pick it up and transfer it to their Sarcheshmeh copper factory.

Unblocking railway links would allow Armenia to connect to Iran. Armenian and Iranian railways are similar, both are Soviet standards. The Turkish railway is narrower because it's European. We can export our cargo straight to Iran via railway.

REPORTER: But Iran and Azerbaijan have already agreed to build a new trade route bypassing Armenia.

ARAM: Azerbaijan would still want a "backup" route via Armenia.

REPORTER: Pashinyan revealed yesterday that we can't use the [northern] Ijevan railway link because of the risk of landslides near Haghartsin. He said we could spend $500 million to try to address the landslides without any guarantees.

ARAM: The landslides aren't news to me. During my student years, they drove us to the Ijevan-Hrazdan highway and instructed us to dig canals near the railways to allow the waters to pass without damaging the tracks. So yes, there is a very serious landslide issue there today, and its behavior is unpredictable. But I wouldn't mind spending $500 million if that meant fixing that route. We need as many transport links to the outside world as possible. Launch the Meghri route ASAP. It will improve our economy and security.

QUESTION: Would Azeris agree to travel through Meghri if customs agents are Armenian?

ARAM: Remember two years ago when Armenian soldiers retreated to the internationally recognized AM-AZ borders near Shurnukh? At the time, Azerbaijan installed a customs checkpoint on the section of the Vorotan road that went under its control. Aliyev said they installed gas stations on that road with prices 50% lower than in Armenia, but he complained that Armenians still didn't want to use the road because they didn't want to pass through Azeri checkpoints on the road. Azeris claim they don't want to encounter Armenian customs agents on the Meghri road for the same reasons. Europe has offered a solution: front office (person who takes the documents) and back office (agents who actually control the process). The idea is to hire an international company to act as the front office, while Armenians would manage the process from the back office.

Iran won't mind if the front office is managed by a French company. They view other Western countries as a threat, as an attempt to manage Iran itself. This AM-FR cooperation could pave the way for possible IR-AM-EU gas transfers in the future. //

[full,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g6h49rkcGg4)

Yerevan's newly elected mayor is issued a $60 fine for driving a microbus with passengers without the appropriate license

During the electoral campaign, Tigran Avinyan published a video of him driving Yerevan's "last Gazel". The city is replacing all small microbuses with more spacious buses. Avinyan was issued a citation for driving the microbus without a class D license.

[article,](https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1121727/)

World Population Review: index places Armenia as the 9th country out of 133 with the lowest crime

(1) Venezuela (highest)

(43) France

(47) Iran

(55) USA

(61) Moldova

(84) Russia

(86) Turkey

(101) Azerbaijan

(124) Georgia

(125) Armenia

(133) Qatar (lowest)

>Հանցավորության ընդհանուր մակարդակը հաշվարկվել է՝ բաժանելով ցանկացած տեսակի հանցագործությունների ընդհանուր թիվը երկրների ընդհանուր բնակչության թվին, այնուհետև արդյունքը բազմապատկելով 100․000-ով

[article,](https://factor.am/699226.html) [article,](https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/crime-rate-by-country)

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Link to original report and comments: https://www.reddit.com/r/armenia/comments/175onkj/meghri_railway_pros_cons_customs_enforcement/