05YEREVAN279
Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin 05YEREVAN279 2005-02-17 12:11 2011-08-24 01:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Yerevan This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available. UNCLAS YEREVAN 000279
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN
E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KPAO IR AM SUBJECT: ARMENIA FRETS IN PRESS OVER POSSIBLE U.S. ATTACK ON IRAN
SUMMARY
¶1. Armed conflict between Iran and the U.S. is seen as a very real possibility in Armenia, Iran's northern neighbor. While GOAM officials cite Secretary Rice's statements and are not claiming that a military strike is imminent, they have been publicly voicing concern about what would happen if Armenia were to face three closed borders out of four. The following is a sampling of press commentary and statements of senior GOAM officials. End Summary.
ECONOMY THE PRIMARY WORRY
¶2. First and foremost, Armenia is concerned about the economic impact of losing Iran as a trade partner. As 'Respublika Armenia,' an official GOAM Russian-language newspaper, stated in an article on February 16th, "Iran's isolation from the international economy even for a while will be of considerable impact on the international economy . . . and of significant impact for Armenia in terms of communications . . . and economic development."
TOP OFFICIALS VOICE CONCERN
¶3. Armenian Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian, speaking to university students on February 8, was widely quoted in the Armenian press, saying, "A U.S. preventative action against Iran will have dire consequences for the South Caucasus. [Secretary Rice's] comments remove some of the worries, but . . . her remarks are still rather alarming, as any military action will have a negative impact on the region."
¶4. On February 14, Armenian Defense Secretary Serzh Sargsian, hinting at the effect action against Iran might have on the frozen conflict with Azerbaijan, said, "Possible military actions in Iran are dangerous since any tension, especially open hostilities, might play a detonating role. Armenia has high hopes that no military action will take place, and new hotbeds of tension will not emerge in the region." Sargsian's comment was carried by BBC News Service and most Armenian media outlets.
OTHER LOGS ON THE FIRE
¶5. Opposition National Assembly member Vazgen Manukyan, a four-time presidential candidate, said in an interview with 'Armenpress' news agency on January 20, "U.S. actions against Iran might cause a long- lasting tragedy in the whole of the South Caucasus, comparable to the recent devastating tsunami in Asia."
¶6. 'Haykakan Zhamanak,' a sensationalist opposition daily newspaper published an article on January 20 titled, "USA May Use Azeri Territories to Launch Attack on Iran," in which it reported that "the Armenian- controlled Azerbaijani territories are the most convenient place for deploying American bases and attacking Iran. This option will . . . solve several problems [for the U.S.], including the Karabakh conflict." The article goes on to predict, "Azerbaijan and the USA will sign an agreement under which Azerbaijan will allow the USA to deploy from these territories . . . convincing the world that the territories controlled by Armenia belong to Azerbaijan."
COMMENT: FRETTING OVER EVERY WORD
¶7. In covering this issue, the Armenian press acknowledges assertions that no U.S. attack is imminent. For Armenia, however, the specter of another closed border makes any suggestion of U.S. military action against Iran frightful. GODFREY